Sky News Daily The migrant return scheme: One-in, none-out?
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Sep 16, 2025 
Danny Shaw, a former advisor to Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and a well-versed Home Affairs commentator, delves into the complexities of the UK's controversial migrant return scheme with France. He discusses legal challenges, political reactions, and the skepticism surrounding the 'one-in, one-out' policy. Shaw contrasts this initiative with the previous Rwanda scheme and questions its effectiveness in curbing crossings. He highlights the inadequacies in handling the migrant crisis while balancing national security and immigration strategies.
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How The One-In-One-Out Deal Works
- The one-in-one-out treaty lets the UK return people who crossed by small boats to France while France sends an equivalent number of properly processed asylum seekers to the UK.
- The policy aims to deter crossings by creating a tangible risk of being returned to France.
Legal Hurdles Are Predictable
- Legal challenges were expected because each detainee can contest admissibility and raise human-rights or medical claims to block removal.
- France being a recognised safe country makes some human-rights claims harder to win, but other legal routes remain available.
Scale Determines Deterrence
- Initial returns will be small and unlikely to deter most migrants unless numbers ramp up significantly from tens to hundreds per week.
- Operational, processing and reciprocal-take constraints make rapid scale-up difficult.