web3 with a16z crypto Prediction Markets -- Everything You Need to Know
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Sep 26, 2025 
In this insightful discussion, economist Alex Tabarrok, known for his work on information aggregation, teams up with Scott Kominers, a market design expert from Harvard Business School. Together, they dive into prediction markets, explaining how they aggregate knowledge more effectively than polls and the mechanics behind market prices reflecting collective insights. They explore the impact of AI and blockchain on these markets, along with their potential for guiding real-world events, while also addressing challenges like manipulation and the need for robust participant incentives.
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Markets As Information Aggregators
- Prediction markets aggregate dispersed private information into a single price that reflects collective probability estimates.
- Markets often outperform polls or complex models because participants push prices toward the truth through buying and selling.
Hayek’s Price-System Applied
- Hayek argued prices transmit dispersed knowledge by incentivizing people to reveal private information through transactions.
- Prediction markets apply that same mechanism to forecasting specific events by embedding info into prices.
Exploit Mispriced Probabilities
- Buy assets priced below your subjective probability to profit and push market prices closer to your estimate.
- Encourage thicker markets by allowing larger stakes so informed participants can justify costly information gathering.
