The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Did Fed Governor Stephen Miran do enough to support our Paradigm C bull market?
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Sep 23, 2025 This discussion dives into Fed Governor Stephen Miran’s pivotal speech and its implications for Paradigm C and risk assets. The conversation highlights how Miran's academic framing suggests a structural change at the Fed, leading to bullish trends in stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. Darius also explores the unusual market reaction to a dovish stance, breaking down bond yields and their dynamics. The implications of a changing commitment to inflation targets reveal more about future financial strategies and opportunities in the evolving economic landscape.
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Moran Moves Narrative To Economic Theory
- Stephen Moran reframed his dovish dot-plot projection using academic models to legitimize a lower long-run policy rate.
- This shift moves the narrative from politics to economics and forces Fed staff and Wall Street to respond.
Low Neutral Rate And Balance Sheet Logic
- Moran's model places the nominal neutral rate around 2%–2.5% and links a smaller Fed balance sheet to deregulation easing reserve needs.
- Darius says this supports a structural Fed regime change that benefits risk assets without triggering bond-market panic.
Deregulation As A Monetary Lever
- Financial deregulation can reduce banks' required capital against Treasuries, lowering the need for a large Fed balance sheet.
- Darius argues this is a deliberate lever to ease fiscal dominance and support stocks, gold, and Bitcoin.