Michael Liu on why he thinks Cogstate $COGZF is a great business wrapped in a special situation play

Michael Liu, Analyst at Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management, discusses Cogstate (ASX: CGS) / (OTCQX: COGZF). Cogstate provides computerized cognitive tests for Alzheimer's clinical trials. Michael came on to discuss his thesis on Cogstate and how a failed takeover attempt could create an interesting special situation.

For more information about Michael Liu and Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management, please visit: https://if.capital/

You can Follow Michael Liu on Twitter @michael20171 : https://twitter.com/michael2017l

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:51] What is Cogstate and why are they interesting?

[6:21] Cogstate Fundamentals

[8:01] Why doesn't large pharma, like Biogen, develop these cognitive tests on their own?

[10:38] Cogstate value proposition

[12:04] Does Cogstate control all the data from the clinical trials?

[12:47] Alternative to Cogstate's computerized cognitive tests (pen and paper tests), and understanding competitive landscape

[16:08] Current Cogstate market share for their tests vs. pen and paper tests

[18:12] Growth in Alzheimer's research and diversifying revenues outside of big Phase II and Phase III clinical trials for Alzheimer's drugs

[21:30] Additional R&D post-approval of Alzheimer's drugs (what this means for Cogstate)

[25:55] Valuation

[29:53] Bookings and revenue recognition (and how that relates to thinking about valuation)

[33:44] What caused to the stock to plummet earlier this year February 2023

[35:43] Gaming out why the buyout didn't happen

[36:44] Management background

[39:16] Recent insider buys and understanding why this happened today vs months ago

[43:07] Who the buyers could be for Cogstate

[46:18] Closing thoughts on Cogstate - recent buyouts in the Australian space

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