Unprecedented, Unusual, Challenging Economy More Bifurcated Than Ever | Michael Kantrowitz

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Jul 13, 2025

Michael Kantrowitz, Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, introduces his innovative HOPE framework for assessing economic health. He delves into the evolving landscape of the post-COVID economy, highlighting the stark disparities in sectors like housing. The conversation covers consumer behavior shifts, emphasizing how affluent spending is slowing. Kantrowitz also discusses the intricate ties between market indices and fundamentals, urging a strategic approach in navigating today's bifurcated economic environment. Tune in for insights on what 2025 may hold!

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INSIGHT

Unusual, Bifurcated Economy

The economy remains unusual and bifurcated due to COVID's impact but shows overall stability at a high level.
Some sectors, like housing, are weak while others, such as AI, remain strong and growing.

INSIGHT

HOPE Framework Signals No Recession End

The HOPE framework tracks economic health through Housing, Orders, Profits, and Employment.
Housing weakness continues without a rebound, indicating no recession end yet; the economy is still circling the runway.

INSIGHT

Housing Weakness’s Complex Impact

Economic cycles are complex; housing weakness doesn't always directly cause other sector declines.
This cycle's uniqueness means housing struggles might not fully propagate into a broad downturn.

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Today's guest is best known for his HOPE framework, a highly effective way to measure the health of the economy, and tell whether it's getting stronger or weaker.As we enter the second half of 2025 -- with momentum stocks stumbling while the markets remain richly valued near all-time highs -- what does his framework tell us 2025 has in store?To find out, we have the good fortune to speak today with Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist & managing director at Piper Sandler.

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