The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - November 11, 2025
Nov 11, 2025
The stock market surged as optimism about a government reopening drove the Dow up by 559 points. Historical trends reveal that markets often rebound positively after shutdowns, with a 65% success rate two months in. A looming data gap due to the shutdown has many awaiting crucial economic indicators like CPI and jobless claims. The discussion also touches on how declining inflation and job figures might influence Federal Reserve rate decisions. Alongside a tribute to Veterans Day, listeners get insights into comparing growth stocks against benchmarks.
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Back From Dallas With Energy
- Brian described returning from a productive team meeting in Dallas energized for market coverage.
- That context set up his market recap and observations for the week.
Markets Lifted By Government Reopening
- Government reopenings remove policy-related market risk and can drive meaningful rallies.
- Historical shutdowns show markets were higher about 65% two months after, suggesting a constructive setup.
Historical Shutdowns Tend To Be Market-Positive
- Past shutdowns show an average two-month post-shutdown gain of ~3% with positive outcomes most of the time.
- That historical pattern doesn't guarantee future results but frames the current end-of-year setup as constructive.