Schwab Network Jay Hatfield’s 2026 Thesis: 8,000 SPX, 3 Rate Cuts, 10-Year Below 4%
Jan 23, 2026
Jay Hatfield, CEO and CIO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors with macro and fixed‑income expertise, lays out a bold 2026 market forecast. He discusses why reversing Japanese bond moves could lift the S&P to 8,000. He talks about falling inflation, the 10‑year sliding below 4%, expected rate cuts, and why GDI and sector data matter more than GDP.
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BOJ Shock Likely To Reverse
- Jay Hatfield expects the Bank of Japan-driven rise in global rates to reverse, easing U.S. yields.
- He forecasts inflation falling and three Fed cuts, which would push the 10-year below 4%.
GDP Versus Sector Signals
- Jay argues GDP is boosted by volatile foreign trade while investment and interest-sensitive sectors show weakness.
- He expects housing to recover as mortgage rates fall, supporting a pick-up in GDP to ~3.3%.
Ignore Political Noise On Treasuries
- Don't overreact to political narratives about foreign holders selling Treasuries; global buyers will fill demand.
- Focus on global arbitrage and Fed policy as the main drivers of U.S. yields, not temporary seller politics.