Sayash Kapoor (Princeton) discusses the incoherence of precise p(doom) predictions and the pervasiveness of AI “snake oil.” Check out his and Arvind Narayanan’s new book, AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can’t, and How to Tell the Difference.

Topics include:

What’s a prediction, really?
p(doom): your guess is as good as anyone’s
Freakishly chaotic creatures (us, that is)
AI can’t predict the impact of AI
Gaming AI with invisible ink
Life is luck—let’s act like it
Superintelligence (us, that is)
The bitter lesson
AI danger: sweat the small stuff

Links:

AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can’t, and How to Tell the Difference

AI Existential Risk Probabilities Are Too Unreliable to Inform Policy

AI Snake Oil (Substack)

Horney, Sullivan, & Fromm