Podcast discusses reactions to inflation data with insights on PPI and retail sales. Topics include potential TikTok ban, CRE market, mortgage rates, and real estate trends. Analysis on economic indicators, labor market strength, rate cuts, unemployment rates, and inflation debates. Insights on market updates, wealth management, and implications of recent data releases. Exploration of challenges in commercial real estate, foreign investments, gender bias at Goldman Sachs, and ticket scalping in international sports.
Economic indicators like PPI and retail sales suggest mixed signals affecting rate cut speculation.
Conversion of outdated office spaces poses CRE challenges, emphasizing adaptability for sustainable real estate investments.
Deep dives
Retail Sales and PPI Analysis by Chief US Economist
The podcast features a discussion led by the Chief US economist, Jeffrey Cleveland, analyzing recent economic data. The retail sales figures were slightly cooler than expected, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) for February exceeded predictions. Cleveland expressed skepticism about the need for rate cuts, citing strong labor market indicators like low layoff activity and a potential increase in PPI. He emphasized the importance of looking beyond retail sales to factors like consumer incomes for insights into spending behavior.
Unemployment Rate and Potential Rate Hike
The conversation shifts to the unemployment rate, with Cleveland casting doubt on the reported 3.9% rate due to the volatile nature of household surveys. He suggested a possible return to a lower rate below 4% in the months ahead. Cleveland even explores the controversial idea of a potential rate hike in the future, based on a sustained 3-4% inflation rate, despite most policymakers aiming for a two-handle on inflation.
Inflation Factors and Commercial Real Estate Trends
Discussion revolves around the factors contributing to elevated inflation rates, such as goods prices stabilizing and rental metrics indicating higher core inflation. Commercial real estate trends are also highlighted, particularly focusing on older, obsolete office spaces facing challenges. The conversation delves into the concept of converting unused office spaces into other viable uses, emphasizing the importance of long-term ownership and the ability to ride out market downturns.
Legacy of Gerald Levin and Elon Musk's Show Cancellation
The podcast reflects on the legacy of Gerald Levin, known for the Time Warner merger and AOL Time Warner deal, passing away at 84. Elon Musk's decision to cancel a CNN show discussing controversial topics is also covered, with Musk critiquing the show's approach. The discussion ranges from cultural issues in the workplace, commercial real estate challenges, a major baseball series, to commentary on Elon Musk's show cancellation.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyMarch 14th, 2024 Featuring:
Jeffrey Cleveland, Chief US Economist at Payden & Rygel, on immediate reaction to PPI and retail sales
Brian Weiser, Principal at Madison and Wall, LLC, on TikTok potential ban.
Hessam Nadji, CEO at Marcus & Millichap, on CRE, mortgage rate dip, and other real estate topics
Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo with her Newspaper Headlines