The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons EP#65 John Burns | 15 Predictions for Apartments & SFR 2026
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Jan 1, 2026 John Burns, Founder and CEO of John Burns Research & Consulting, shares his insights on the housing market's future. He predicts that 2026 may be a 'boring year' with modest home sales and stable rents. He discusses the impact of demographics, revealing shifts in household formation driven by immigration. Additionally, he notes the evolving role of master-planned communities integrating rentals. Burns also emphasizes the divided nature of for-sale and rental markets, urging for better integration of insights for effective strategies.
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Gain-To-Lease Creates A Major 2026 Risk
- Gain-to-lease means advertised new-lease rents can be lower than in-place renewal rents, creating inverted rent rolls.
- If new-lease rents fail to reaccelerate in spring 2026, owners face shrinking revenue and painful renewal choices.
Prioritize NOI Over Renewal KPIs
- Monitor spring new-lease momentum closely and adjust renewal strategy to protect net operating income.
- Avoid prioritizing renewal trade-out metrics over true bottom-line outcomes when deciding concessions or increases.
Supply Drops, But Lease‑Ups Still Linger
- Apartment and BTR supply will fall sharply in 2026, with apartment deliveries near a decade low.
- Expect lingering effects from the 2024–25 completions still lease‑ups into 2026’s first half.