Market Mover C’è da gioire delle fragilità francesi?
Sep 11, 2025
Maximilian Cellino, a colleague of Andrea Franceschi, delves into the instability of the French market amidst political turmoil and budget challenges. He highlights how French bonds are now seen as risky as their Italian counterparts. The discussion also draws comparisons between France and Italy, focusing on public debt and investment confidence. Cellino emphasizes the European Central Bank's role in maintaining financial stability, and the broader implications of these issues for economic growth in France.
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Benchmark Changes Distorted Yields
- Technical benchmark changes briefly made some French yields appear higher than Italian ones by several cents.
- This was a market-technical effect, not a fundamental inversion of risk between France and Italy.
Politics And Budgets Drive French Risk Perception
- Political instability and budget strain pushed French yields up and narrowed the gap with Italy.
- Despite market moves, rating agencies still view France as less risky than Italy for now.
Trajectory Matters More Than Current Debt
- Investors worry not only about current debt levels but about the trajectory and expected deficits.
- France's projected deficit above targets fuels market unease even if absolute ratings remain high.