Manifold Geopolitics 2026, crossover with Seeking Truth From Facts podcast – #103
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Jan 15, 2026 Steve Hsu, a theoretical physicist and tech entrepreneur, shares his insights on the geopolitical landscape for 2026. He discusses the complexities of US-China economic tensions and the limitations of tariffs. Hsu analyzes Trump's strategic shifts and the implications of U.S. dominance reduction in the Western Pacific. He also explores the dynamics of the Middle East and the challenges facing Ukraine. The conversation highlights China's technological advancements, Venezuela's political turmoil, and the reliability of international law in a changing world.
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Tariff Leverage Was Overstated
- Steve Hsu argues Trump's tariff campaign overestimated U.S. leverage and underestimated China's economic resilience.
- China would survive major U.S. export cuts without collapse, and such coercion backfired in 2025.
China Has Caught Up Technologically
- Steve Hsu notes China climbed the value chain and now matches or dominates in most advanced manufacturing sectors.
- Only a few areas like EUV lithography lag, while EVs, batteries, and solar show Chinese leadership.
From Forward Posture To Fortress Americas
- The Trump administration accepts U.S. weakness projecting power in the Western Pacific and plans around defending the Americas.
- This represents a strategic shift from forward engagement to 'fortress Americas' defense planning.