2025 Outlook: Europe’s economies brace for more political upheaval
Dec 20, 2024
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Peter Schaffrik, Chief European Macro Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, breaks down Europe's economic landscape as it gears up for 2025. He discusses how recession seems avoidable yet growth remains elusive amid political instability. Schaffrik highlights the evolving role of central banks in a shifting interest rate environment and the complexities of fiscal policies impacting trade. He also examines opportunities for investors navigating uncertainties, including inflation and geopolitical tensions.
Europe's economy in 2025 may avoid recession with modest growth due to a resilient labor market and supportive rate cuts.
Geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation challenges complicate fiscal policy responses, necessitating careful strategic measures for economic stability.
Deep dives
Europe's Economic Growth Forecast for 2025
The growth outlook for Europe in 2025 is generally cautiously optimistic, with expectations of positive growth around one to one and a half percent. This nuanced forecast arises from a surprisingly resilient labor market, which has continued to perform better than anticipated despite previous interest rate hikes. Even with inflation decreasing, signs point toward a stable economic environment that may avoid a severe recession. Central banks appear poised to support this positive trajectory by implementing rate cuts, which could further bolster economic activity.
Challenges of Inflation and Productivity Growth
Inflation and low productivity growth remain prominent challenges for both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England. While lower inflation figures provide some room for monetary easing, inflation driven by domestic factors, particularly services, has proven to be persistent. The backdrop of stagnant productivity growth adds complexity to the situation, as productivity improvements are critical for enhancing living standards and sustaining economic growth. This dual challenge may constrain how aggressively central banks can pursue rate cuts while managing inflation effectively.
Impact of Geopolitical Factors and Fiscal Policy
Geopolitical risks, such as trade tariffs and shifting fiscal policies, play a crucial role in shaping Europe’s economic landscape. Although tariffs typically pose a threat to European economies that rely on open trade, they may also introduce complicated dynamics that impact inflation. Upcoming changes in fiscal policies, particularly in Germany, are expected to provide necessary economic support, although unaddressed deficits and high debt levels remain concerns. These factors underline the need for strategic fiscal measures to stimulate growth while navigating the pressures of an evolving global economic environment.
Recession looks avoidable for Europe in 2025, but significant growth is still elusive. This episode of RBC Capital Market’s Strategic Alternatives considers the prospects, weighing political volatility in the region, central banks’ rate-cutting cycles, and potential U.S. interventions. What does all this mean for investors? Janet Wilkinson, Head of Fixed Income & Currencies Flow Sales, EMEA, is joined by Peter Schaffrik, Chief European Macro Strategist, and Cathal Kennedy, Senior U.K. Economist.
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