Hub Podcasts Why Trump's Venezuela gambit won't break Canadian oil
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Jan 7, 2026 Felice Chin, Alberta bureau chief and energy analyst, discusses why Venezuela's oil won't threaten Canada's supply, emphasizing the importance of regional refineries and industry resilience. Kirk LaPointe, a seasoned journalist, critiques Canada's decline in World Juniors hockey due to outdated systems and compares it to U.S. and European models. Historian J.L. Granatstein advocates for renewed military training programs and stronger ties between universities and the Canadian Armed Forces to address evolving defense needs.
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Venezuela's Oil Is Similar But Slow To Return
- Venezuelan heavy crude is chemically similar to Alberta bitumen and can substitute in refineries built for heavy sour barrels.
- But rebuilding Venezuelan production and re-entering markets will take years and huge capital, limiting near-term displacement of Canadian oil.
Regional Markets Buffer Canadian Supply
- U.S. oil is a patchwork of regional markets, so Venezuelan barrels would mainly threaten Gulf Coast refineries, not Midwest ones tied to Canadian supply.
- That regional separation makes complete displacement of Canadian oil highly unlikely in the short term.
Prices Move Before Barrels
- Price effects often show up before physical volumes when new supply prospects appear, moving markets on rumors as much as barrels.
- Many Alberta projects can still break even around $40 WTI, making producers more resilient to price dips.