Money For the Rest of Us

Natural Disasters: Are They Truly Increasing?

Aug 16, 2023

The podcast discusses the factors contributing to the devastating Maui wildfire, global wildfire trends, and the role of insurance companies. It explores the complex interplay of climate change, urban expansion, and human choices. The podcast also addresses the lack of confidence in weather impact predictions due to natural variability and provides guidance for individuals dealing with long-term potential threats.

26:36

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Quick takeaways

Global wildfires have been decreasing in both number and extent, but the number and severity of natural disasters are actually increasing.

Increased investment in agriculture areas has contributed to the decline in global wildfires, while climate change is a significant factor in the increasing number of natural disasters.

Deep dives

Global wildfires are declining

Contrary to popular belief, global wildfires have been decreasing in both number and extent. Data from the Copernicus atmosphere monitoring service shows a downward trend in total wildfire carbon emissions. A research paper revealed a 24% reduction in global burned area from 1999 to 2017. Increased investment in agriculture areas has contributed to this decline by reducing fire activity. However, localized variations exist, such as increased wildfires in parts of Asia due to burning agricultural waste.

Introduction

3min

Population Growth, Agriculture, and Fire Activity

5min

The Increasing Frequency and Severity of Natural Disasters

9min

The Impact of Increasing Natural Disasters on Insurance Companies

3min

The Impact of Climate Change on Natural Disasters

6min

The Impact of Climate Change on Natural Disasters and Individual Actions

5min

From raging wildfires to devastating floods, how are these natural events reshaping our financial landscape? What if anything, should we be doing with our investments as a result?

Topics covered include:

The devastating Maui wildfire: What are the factors that led to one of the deadliest wildfires in US history.
Global wildfire trends: Are they really increasing? The data might surprise you.
The role of insurance companies: Learn how the giants of the reinsurance world, like Swiss Re and Munich Re, are navigating the increasing number of natural disasters.
The complex interplay of climate change, urban expansion, and human choices
Why IPCC is not highly confident regarding some weather impacts of climate change due to the natural variability in weather patterns.
What should individuals do when there is a lack of details regarding a long-term potential threat?

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Show Notes

Why the fires in Hawaii have been so bad—The Economist

CAMS: monitoring extreme wildfire emissions in 2022—Copernicus

A human-driven decline in global burned area by N. Andela et al.—Science

Seasonal Trend for Europe—Copernicus

Insurers rack up $50bn in losses from natural catastrophes this year by Ian Smith—The Financial Times

World insurance market developments in 5 charts—Swiss Re Institute

When Disaster Strikes: Preparing for Climate Change by Seán Nolan and Krishna Srinivasan—IMF

California insurance market rattled by withdrawal of major companies by Michael R. Blood—AP

Rising Temperatures Are Wreaking Havoc Year-Round by Zahra Hirji, Rachael Dottle, and Denise Lu—Bloomberg