Rebel Capitalist News New Data Has Me Re-Thinking EVERYTHING
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May 19, 2025 New data is shaking up economic predictions, suggesting a potential recession by 2025 with stunning accuracy. Discussions highlight the flaws in traditional models and the influence of global factors. Additionally, the podcast tackles rising economic disparities, focusing on the growing gap between the rich and the poor. It reveals how labor market issues and the gig economy are complicating financial stability, prompting deep re-evaluation of current economic beliefs.
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Perfect Recession Indicator Explained
- The perfect recession predictor developed by analyzing 685 million inputs is triggered when certain esoteric interest rate spreads invert.
- Historically, this indicator predicted recession within 12 months with 100% accuracy until recently, showing a major break in 2024 data.
2023 Trigger Breaks Chain
- The perfect recession predictor was triggered in August 2023 but no US recession occurred within 12 months, indicating something is broken.
- This anomaly forces a re-examination of economic models and the nature of recent economic behavior.
Global vs US Recession Signal
- The 2024 perfect recession predictor may reflect global recessions rather than US-specific recessions.
- The US economy has been somewhat isolated while other developed economies like Germany and China are in technical recessions.