Trump Win vs. Southeast Asia Trade, China Talent Flows & Silicon Valley Divided with Shiyan Koh- E496

Shiyan Koh, Managing Partner of  Hustle Fund, and ​​Jeremy Au discussed:

1.  Trump Win vs. Southeast Asia Trade: Trump’s 2024 landslide election victory across the White House, Senate and House of Representatives, will reshape Southeast Asia’s economic landscape. His proposed “global 10% tariff” on all US imports and a targeted 60% tariff on Chinese goods may severely disrupt Southeast Asia’s trade flows. Singapore could face challenges for export-driven industries and its role as a key transit hub for US-China trade. Chinese-funded products manufactured in Southeast Asia—such as solar cells produced in Vietnam— may now face similar tariffs as those directly from China. Biden-era “reverse CFIUS” restrictions, which limit US investment in Chinese firms across sectors such as AI and advanced manufacturing, coupled with Trump's new China hawk administration will further accelerate American LPs and MNCs to redirect foreign direct investment (FDI) towards Southeast Asia instead of China.

2. China Talent Flows: Known as the “Delaware of Asia,” Singapore stands to benefit as both US and Chinese firms seek a neutral and stable base for regional Asia operations (versus Hong Kong). As US-China tensions deter many Chinese families and professionals from pursuing American education and career paths, Singapore has become an appealing alternative. Singapore, a nation built by immigrants, has long maintained a social contract that includes national service (NS) obligations as a cornerstone of fostering social cohesion among its diverse population. However, the country has historically faced complex challenges in determining which types of immigrants to accept, how best to integrate them into society and to improve income inequality. Jeremy shared a story about a former Thai employee who had to leave America after her H-1B visa renewal was denied during Trump’s first term, illustrating how Trump’s immigration policies could drive talent to return to the regional tech ecosystem.

3. Silicon Valley Divided: Opinions remain split, with Trump’s pro-deregulation stance sparking optimism in some corners, evidenced by a surge in Bitcoin prices and positive reactions from equity markets. Supporters point to potential gains for sectors like crypto and tech equities, alongside corporate tax cuts that help maintain profits, boost R&D, and provide attractive exit opportunities for venture capitalists. Concerns were raised that while deregulation under Trump may fuel market growth, higher tariffs could exacerbate economic disparities and be the wrong solution for the middle class.

Jeremy and Shiyan also talked about how China exporters like BYD electric cars will now increasingly focus on Southeast Asia markets, Singapore’s low birth rate like Japan and the growing number of startups building digital AI companions.

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