Podcast discusses the update on the Theta Engine strategy, mechanics tab of the trading platform, analyzing P and L multiples, potential premium capture rate and performance during a bear market, and volatility and performance of the Theta Engine strategy.
The Theta Engine strategy has not been profitable so far in 2022, but there is potential for a positive outcome in the remaining months of the year.
The performance of the Theta Engine strategy has been affected by market volatility and book wipes, but the strategy continues to evolve and adapt to changing market conditions.
Deep dives
Summary of Theta Engine Strategy Performance
The Q2 2022 update of the Theta Engine strategy reveals that it has not been profitable so far this year. Despite daily trade logs and graphs on the Theta Engine page showing the strategy's performance, it is important to gain more context. Depending on the year and a half or so of trading experience, results have varied due to market volatility. The strategy's normalized profit and loss multiples, found in the trade log, reflect the gains and losses based on credit multiples. The 2022 graph displays individual P&L multiples and a red line showing the cumulative performance. Despite setbacks and multiple book wipes, there is potential for a positive outcome in the remaining months of the year. Although not guaranteed, with a win rate of 81.8%, the strategy could achieve a premium capture rate of 10.5%. Despite the challenging market environment and potential losses, the strategy shows resilience and the possibility of recovering.
Break-Even Calculation and Best-Case Scenario
Based on the current negative multiples, an approximate calculation suggests that if everything were to win from this point forward, the strategy may break even in approximately 3.9 months, just short of November 1st. This calculation takes into account the number of positions currently open and the average days in trade. In the best-case scenario, assuming all remaining trades are winners, the strategy could achieve an 81.8% win rate. With an average win-loss ratio of 0.6, the potential premium capture rate could be 10.5%. However, these projections are optimistic and the strategy's performance relies on multiple factors, including market conditions and the execution of trades.
Dynamics of Theta Engine Strategy and Market Analysis
Analyzing the performance of the Theta Engine strategy throughout the year, some patterns emerge. The year started with a significant market drop and subsequent volatility increase, leading to the first book wipe. Subsequently, the market displayed choppiness and the strategy exhibited resilience with a few profit takes and one intraday stop. However, a series of market drops in April and May caused the second book wipe. The strategy has adapted to the heightened volatility and changing market conditions. Despite extreme market movements and book wipes, the strategy continues to evolve. The podcast emphasizes that market drops and volatility spikes are expected, and while the strategy's results have been challenging in 2022, there is the potential for a positive outcome in the future.
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