Janet Henry chats with Pranjul Bhandari about growth prospects in India and Indonesia, focusing on demographic factors, modern services' spillover effect on manufacturing, job market strength, urban growth, and the impact of oil prices. The speakers also discuss India's external finances and the potential for higher growth in the next decade. Additionally, they explore promising sectors, such as Indonesia's move towards processing metals, and the potential growth in the EV ecosystem in both countries.
India's modern services sector has experienced rapid growth, contributing to increased revenue and employment opportunities.
Despite global challenges, India's economy has shown resilience, with strong urban growth and potential for easing interest rates.
Deep dives
India's Comparative Advantage in Services and Shift towards Manufacturing
India's modern services sector, including IT services exports, has experienced rapid growth, offering a range of professional services beyond just call centers. Multinational companies have established their global capability centers in India, contributing to increased revenue. A notable trend is the movement from services to manufacturing, with MNCs setting up manufacturing plants in sectors like medical equipment and high-precision manufacturing. Even domestic startups are transitioning from services to manufacturing. The challenge lies in ensuring inclusive growth and providing employment opportunities for the majority of India's population.
India's Robust Growth and Macroeconomic Stability Amid Global Challenges
Despite global challenges like a stronger dollar, higher US yields, and volatile oil prices, India's economy has shown resilience and strong urban growth. Employment numbers have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, driving strong incomes and offsetting weaker rural incomes. While India's external finances may face some concerns, its large stock of foreign exchange reserves and active intervention by the Reserve Bank of India contribute to macroeconomic stability. In terms of inflation risks, both India and Indonesia have seen low inflation, and there is potential for easing interest rates in the near future.
Indonesia's Promising Sectors and Strong Macroeconomic Stability
Indonesia has promising sectors that could contribute to higher growth in the next decade, such as moving up the value chain in manufacturing and leveraging its stock of nickel for EV production. Macroeconomic stability is strong in Indonesia, with low inflation and a lower-than-targeted fiscal deficit. While external finances have been impacted by falling prices of coal and palm oil, Indonesia is expected to have room for interest rate cuts due to well-behaved inflation. The upcoming elections in 2024 in both India and Indonesia will have implications for policy continuity and reforms.
In this edition, Janet Henry chats with Pranjul Bhandari about the outlook for growth in India, the world's most populous economy, and Indonesia, which is set to have the fourth-largest consumer population by 2030.
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Disclosures and Disclaimers: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/61/97zmtKl