Tangle PREVIEW - The Friday Edition Part 1: Russian expert Richard Sakwa and the future of the Ukraine war
Oct 17, 2025
Richard Sakwa, a professor emeritus specializing in Russian and European politics, shares his insights on the Ukraine war. He distinguishes between two conflicting narratives about the conflict and highlights four root causes: Ukraine's internal divisions, Russia-Ukraine tensions, pan-European failures, and US-Russia dynamics. Sakwa critiques NATO’s role in perpetuating conflict and discusses Putin's motives, framing them as security-driven rather than expansionist. It’s a deep dive into the complexities of a crisis reshaping Europe.
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Four-Layer Root Causes
- Richard Sakwa frames the war as driven by four interacting levels: internal Ukrainian divisions, Russo-Ukrainian tensions, pan-European failures, and US-Russia dynamics.
- He argues these layered causes make the conflict deeply intractable and require simultaneous resolution across all levels.
Conflict Has Harder Edges Now
- Sakwa warns the situation has worsened on each level since 2022, increasing danger rather than opening diplomatic paths.
- He fears the only likely resolution trending now is military, raising risks of wider escalation.
Trump Is Reactive, Not Strategic
- Sakwa says Trump's posture promised outreach but in practice lacks grasp of Russia's deeper security concerns.
- He describes Trump's shifts as reactive to Brussels, Kiev, and Moscow rather than guided by a coherent strategy.
