BRICS De-Dollarization Efforts, the G20, and a U.S. Manufacturing Outlook
Nov 4, 2024
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At the recent BRICS Summit, global leaders are pushing for de-dollarization, challenging the U.S. dollar's long-standing dominance. Discussions around alternative currencies, including the euro and renminbi, highlight emerging trends in international trade. The G20's focus on sustainable development and women’s trade participation signals a shift in priorities. Meanwhile, a study reveals the evolving landscape of U.S. manufacturing, emphasizing the need for adaptation in a service-oriented economy and the critical importance of manufacturing for national security.
The BRICS Summit signals a growing ambition for de-dollarization while highlighting the challenges of finding a credible alternative to the dollar.
The G20 emphasized sustaining a rules-based trading system, focusing on topics like sustainable development despite limited measurable outcomes from their discussions.
Deep dives
BRICS and De-Dollarization Ambitions
The BRICS group's recent meeting highlighted the growing ambition for de-dollarization, which refers to reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar for global trade. This shift is driven by the challenges countries face with sanctions and the desire for more transaction autonomy. While the dollar remains the dominant currency, with its deep liquidity and acceptance, some nations are exploring alternative currency options, such as the euro or the Chinese renminbi. Nevertheless, the lack of a credible rival to the dollar and concerns over financial stability, particularly regarding the renminbi's limited convertibility, indicate that a significant shift away from the dollar is unlikely in the near future.
G20 Meeting Outcomes and WTO Reform
The G20 trade ministers meeting in Brasilia focused on sustaining and reforming the rules-based trading system, contrasting with the BRICS' approach to create alternatives. Key topics included sustainable development, women's participation in trade, and investment facilitation, but measurable outcomes were limited. Notably, the ministers emphasized the need for a fully operational WTO dispute settlement system by the end of 2024, amidst ongoing tensions regarding the U.S. stance on multilateral agreements and appellate process reforms. This highlights the G20's commitment to maintaining a collaborative approach to trade, while facing challenges from countries resistant to adopting new frameworks.
U.S. Manufacturing Landscape
Recent analysis indicates that while there is a perception of a manufacturing renaissance in the U.S., actual growth in manufacturing jobs and productivity remains stagnant. Employment levels have barely recovered from COVID losses, and productivity growth in manufacturing is lagging significantly behind other sectors. Factors such as energy costs, automation, and regulatory environments are pivotal in shaping the future of manufacturing, but currently, manufacturing constitutes less than 8% of total employment in the economy. This shift towards service-oriented jobs reflects the need for policymakers to address the underlying challenges faced by the manufacturing sector, promoting technological advancements and regulatory reforms to spur growth.
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we talk about the BRICS Summit and efforts to move away from dollar dominance, the G20 Trade and Investment Ministers' Meeting, and a new study from the Peterson Institute's Robert Lawrence that assesses recent U.S. efforts to re-shore manufacturing jobs.
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