Discover the latest Canadian Consumer Price Index hitting 1.9%, with insights on inflation trends and their potential impacts. Delve into how rising U.S. inflation could influence Federal Reserve strategies. Goeasy showcases strong growth amid economic challenges, while Canadian Tire hints at a resurgence, despite risks in credit services. Explore Telus's impressive performance within a struggling telecom sector, highlighting resilience against competitive pressures. Tune in for a deep dive into the world of Canadian brands and market dynamics!
The Canadian CPI's increase to 1.9% is influenced by rising energy prices and tax breaks affecting consumer costs.
GoEasy's strong growth highlights consumer reliance on subprime loans, raising concerns about financial stability in a slowing economy.
Deep dives
Current Canadian CPI Insights
The Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2025 shows a headline increase of 1.9% year over year, slightly above expectations, while experiencing a month-over-month rise of 0.1%. Key drivers of this inflation include rising energy prices, particularly gasoline, which saw an increase of 8.6% year over year, contributing to overall cost pressures. Meanwhile, the GST and HST tax breaks played a significant role in decreasing prices on certain items, such as restaurant food, which declined by 5.1%. Observations regarding energy prices post-tax break indicate these fluctuations may lead to future inflation trends, raising questions about the sustainability of current CPI levels.
GoEasy's Performance and Economic Implications
GoEasy reported significant growth as its revenue increased by 23% year-over-year, demonstrating strong demand for its loan products and a notable rise in new customer volumes. However, the increasing reliance on secured loans, now at 45% of the loan portfolio, raises concerns about consumer solvency amid an uncertain economic landscape. Analysts highlight that while GoEasy's growth seems robust, it may indicate a deeper issue within the Canadian economy, as more consumers may be turning to subprime lenders due to financial pressures. The overall performance and potential risks associated with the rise in unsecured loans are critical considerations for investors in the current environment.
Canadian Tire's Earnings Report and Consumer Trends
Canadian Tire's Q4 2024 results showed a modest improvement, with sales up 1.1% amidst a backdrop of declining comparable sales in previous quarters. Although net income surged by 119%, net credit card write-offs rose from 6.1% to 7%, indicating a potential strain on consumers using the retailer's credit facilities. This metric suggests a shift in the financial wellness of Canadian households, as more consumers are utilizing credit amid rising living costs. The improvement in overall sales, though slight, points to a cautious recovery but also reflects the challenges facing middle-income Canadian consumers in managing discretionary spending.
TELUS's Earnings and Market Positioning
TELUS reported a solid performance relative to its telecom peers, showing a 2% increase in revenue and a 5.5% rise in adjusted EBITDA for the year. Although its average revenue per user (ARPU) declined by 3.1%, TELUS is positioned to improve free cash flow amid reduced expenditures compared to prior years, potentially allowing for better dividend coverage. Despite this, industry challenges, such as customer churn and stagnant population growth, present ongoing risks for growth in the telecom sector. Observers note that while TELUS performs better than its competitors, the long-term outlook remains cautious given the competitive landscape and changing consumer behavior.
In this episode, we talk about the latest Canadian CPI print that came in at 1.9%. We break down the key components and discuss where CPI could potentially head in the coming months. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation came in hotter than expected at 3%, raising big questions about the Fed’s next move.
On the earnings front, Goeasy continues to post strong growth but with some increased risks as a slowing economy could be problematic for the Canadian subprime lender. We then discuss Canadian Tire’s latest result which might be an indication that things are turning around for the iconic Canadian brand. We finish the episode by talking about Telus outperforming its telecom peers despite industry-wide struggles.
Tickets of stocks/ETFs discussed: GSY.TO, CTC-A.TO, T.TO.