Carl Robichaud, an expert on nuclear arms race and nuclear risk, discusses topics such as the new nuclear arms race, the role of world leaders and ideology in nuclear risk, the impact of nuclear weapons on stable peace, North Korea's nuclear weapons, public perception of nuclear risk, and reaching a stable, low-risk era.
The new nuclear arms race is characterized by modernization and improvement of nuclear arsenals by all nine nuclear countries, indicating a qualitative arms race.
Individual world leaders' decisions significantly impact nuclear risk, highlighting the need for improved decision-making systems and avoiding emotional responses and potential miscalculations.
Traditional treaty-based approaches to decreasing nuclear risk may be unlikely in the short term due to distrust among major nuclear powers, emphasizing the importance of signaling intentions, avoiding escalating actions, and adopting a policy of nuclear sufficiency for reducing nuclear risks.
All nine countries with nuclear weapons are modernizing and improving their nuclear arsenal in response to developments by other countries, indicating a qualitative arms race.
Increasing Nuclear Weapons: Trend of fewer deployed nuclear weapons reversing
After 30 years of decreasing numbers, there is a trend of more nuclear weapons in the world due to developments in Ukraine, China, North Korea, etc.
Russia and China's Growing Nuclear Arsenal: China seeking parity with US and Russia
China has decided to increase its nuclear arsenal to seek parity with the United States and Russia, aiming to have between 1,000 and 1,500 nuclear weapons, upgraded command and control, and a broader purpose for nuclear weapons.
Concerns and Risks: Influence of individual leaders and the risks of their decision-making
The decisions made by individual leaders significantly impact nuclear risk. The Cuban Missile Crisis highlights how the actions and decisions of Kennedy and Khrushchev determined the outcome. Concerns are raised regarding individual leaders' emotional responses, potential miscalculations, and the need for improved decision-making systems to avoid catastrophic outcomes.
Decrease in Nuclear Weapons Arsenal
During the end of the Cold War, the United States and Russia made significant progress in reducing their nuclear weapons arsenals. This was achieved through the removal of tactical nuclear weapons and the negotiation of arms control treaties limiting the number of deployed weapons. As a result, the overall number of nuclear weapons decreased from approximately 60,000 in the 1980s to around 10,000 to 12,000 today. This reduction was facilitated by the modernization of conventional weapons and improvements in accuracy, which reduced reliance on large nuclear warheads. However, recent tensions between countries and advancements in technology could lead to an increase in the number of nuclear weapons.
Coordination Mechanisms for Decreasing Nuclear Risk
The traditional approach to decreasing nuclear risk has been through formal treaties, which establish limits on the number of warheads and verification mechanisms. However, the current state of distrust between major nuclear powers like the United States, Russia, and China makes treaty-based approaches unlikely in the short term. As a result, signaling intentions and avoiding actions that escalate nuclear tensions becomes crucial. It is important for countries, especially the US, to resist political pressures to build more weapons based on the actions of other nations. Instead, adopting a policy of nuclear sufficiency and promoting global conflict resolution can contribute to decreasing nuclear risks. Additionally, advancements in technology, such as improved transparency and verification tools and the integration of artificial intelligence into nuclear command and control processes, can aid in managing nuclear risks and supporting decision-makers.
Carl Robichaud joins the podcast to discuss the new nuclear arms race, how much world leaders and ideologies matter for nuclear risk, and how to reach a stable, low-risk era. You can learn more about Carl's work here: https://www.longview.org/about/carl-robichaud/
Timestamps:
00:00 A new nuclear arms race
08:07 How much do world leaders matter?
18:04 How much does ideology matter?
22:14 Do nuclear weapons cause stable peace?
31:29 North Korea
34:01 Have we overestimated nuclear risk?
43:24 Time pressure in nuclear decisions
52:00 Why so many nuclear warheads?
1:02:17 Has containment been successful?
1:11:34 Coordination mechanisms
1:16:31 Technological innovations
1:25:57 Public perception of nuclear risk
1:29:52 Easier access to nuclear weapons
1:33:31 Reaching a stable, low-risk era
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