Benedict Evans, a tech analyst known for his insights on future tech trends, joins Steven Sinofsky, former Microsoft executive, to discuss the evolution of computing beyond smartphones. They explore how the perfection of current PCs signals a shift in technology, reflecting on historical advancements from mainframes to mobile. The conversation anticipates a future where innovation must tackle the limitations of already pervasive technology, delving into the potential of the Internet of Things and how interconnected devices may redefine user experiences.
The smartphone era is plateauing as innovation slows in hardware, prompting a shift towards new technological platforms like IoT and PCs.
Future advancements in technology are likely to stem from software evolution and interconnected devices, rather than improvements to existing smartphones.
Deep dives
The Transition from Smartphones to New Platforms
The smartphone era is perceived to be reaching a plateau as it has permeated nearly every aspect of daily life, leaving little room for radical advancements in hardware. As flagship devices from major manufacturers begin to resemble their predecessors, there is a sentiment that innovation within mobile technology has slowed, leading to predictions of an impending shift. In contrast, newer platforms like PCs and tablets, such as the iPad Pro and Surface devices, appear to be evolving, showcasing cutting-edge features and capabilities. This dichotomy suggests that while smartphones are settling into their roles, other areas of technology are igniting fresh opportunities for innovation and change.
Understanding Innovation in Software and Ecosystems
As the hardware aspect of smartphones stabilizes, a significant evolution is occurring in the software realm, particularly with the rise of IoT devices. The integration of software built on stable platforms like Android and iOS is evolving rapidly, enabling new functionalities and expanding the ecosystem beyond traditional smartphone usage. This indicates that much of the future innovation is likely to emerge from software layers that work in tandem with existing smartphone infrastructures, rather than creating entirely new devices. Such an ecosystem fosters collaboration among various players, potentially shifting the power dynamics away from hardware manufacturers as emphasis on software capabilities increases.
The Future Landscape of Technology
Looking forward, the conversation centers around what could equate to a new wave of technology that surpasses the dominance of smartphones. The historical shift from mainframes to personal computers serves as a potential roadmap for what might unfold, suggesting that future innovations will not necessarily come from enhancing the smartphones themselves but from entirely new devices built on existing smartphone components. With massive growth anticipated in the IoT sector, there is a possibility for a vast array of interconnected devices to emerge, signaling a transition into a new computing paradigm characterized by an interconnected ecosystem. This anticipated shift compels stakeholders to re-evaluate how investments are made and where innovation can thrive, emphasizing adaptability and collaboration within the tech landscape.
Technology is a progression of new ideas and new platforms gobbling up the one that came before. In the world of computers we went from mainframes to mini computers to PCs. And then came the mobile phone, which, in the form of the smartphone, has dwarfed them all. But what does that to mobile? When you have already gotten to everybody on earth, what comes along that is 10X the size?
a16z’s Benedict Evans and Steven Sinofsky offer their thoughts on where technology is today, why the perfection of the current crop of PCs signals the category’s collapse, and what happens after the smartphone.
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