Robert Zubrin interview: "Why Elon Musk's Mars plan will fail" and how to do it right

Robert Zubrin is an American aerospace engineer, famous for being the driving force behind Mars Direct, a proposal made in 1990 to use the Martian atmosphere to produce oxygen, water, and rocket propellant for the surface stay and return journey. A modified version of the plan was subsequently adopted by NASA as their "design reference mission", and Elon Musk also adopted the idea now for his Mars plans.    He's the author of the bestselling book The Case for Mars first published in 1996 which famously inspired Elon Musk to go to Mars.    He also wrote among others: The Case for Space (2019), The Case for Nukes (2023) and The New World on Mars: What We Can Create on the Red Planet (2024).    Following the success of his book The Case for Mars, Robert Zubrin founded the Mars Society which is still active to this day and holds a convention every year.   01:00 : Why Elon Musk's Mars plan will fail 05:00 : Why instead we need a mini-Starship (aka Starboat) to succeed 06:35 : The technical, philosophical and political problems with Elon Musk's Mars settlement vision 13:54 : If the Starship is made to work and is as cheap as promised, wouldn't a Mars mission happen irrespective of who's in power in the US? 15:58 : What the first Starship sent to Mars should bring 17:27 : What the right Mars program should be 19:10 : What Elon Musk told Robert Zubrin about his Starboat suggestion 23:24 : Could Robert Zubrin's Starboat be lifted to orbit with a Blue Origin rocket? 25:12 : Has Robert Zubrin exchanged ideas with Jeff Bezos ? 26:12 : Robert Zubin inspired Elon Musk to go to Mars and Gerard O'Neil inspired Jeff Bezos with his vision of free-floating space colonies : why that vision is flawed! 28:25 : Before making grand plans to settle Mars, shouldn't we ensure we can thrive in its gravity? What if Mars gravity level is a showstopper for human settlement? 30:48 : Successful settlement efforts in the past were enabled by demographic growth, but now birth rates are dropping everywhere, then how realistic is it to think of millions let alone trillions of humans in space? 39:05 : Robert Zubrin talks about a labor shortage on Mars, but with the advent of robots and AI, wouldn't the need for human labor be reduced to a minimum?  42:53 : Robert Zubrin wrote that if China is to compete in space, it will have to invoke the forces of liberty, but is that really necessary when one sees Chinese companies crushing western competitors in the EV, drone or battery industries, or able at least to catch up in the AI field? 46:31 : If the Americans were to focus on Mars, wouldn't there be a risk to let the Chinese preempt the best locations on the Moon? 49:54 : Robert Zubrin wrote "We're not endangered by a lack of resources", so with technology, can't we create material and energy abundance on Earth without having to mine Mars and the asteroids?  56:54 : What's the business case to pay for a large population on Mars then? 01:04:05 : If Saturn's moon Titan was as far from Earth as Mars, which one should we settle first? 01:05:35 : Living on Mars : are domes are overrated?  01:08:33 : Can nuclear power make a come back and trump the solar PV boom? The Chinese natural experiment   Questions among others I could not ask because of lack of time, for a future episode :)

• What about the risk to contaminate Mars with Earth life and hence muddle the search for indigenous life? Shouldn't we keep Mars pristine for our robots only for now?
• Fermi paradox: is there a Great Filter preventing ET from colonizing the galaxy? Is it behind us or in front of us as for our own species?
• And also: Space war; does he think we'll get AGI and its impact on space exploration ; his Saturn Express plan ; his solution to fix climate change ; the opportunity of a giant array of telescopes on our moon to map Earthlike planets in nearby stars

I'm Thomas Jestin, you can subscribe to my newsletter here:
In English: https://futureweekly2050.substack
In French: https://parlonsfutur.substack.com/