How to Trade Crypto Cycles with Raoul Pal

29 snips

Nov 24, 2025

Raoul Pal, a macro investor and entrepreneur known for founding Real Vision, joins to discuss the market's latest dynamics. He predicts a liquidity wave in 2026 and explains how to navigate crypto cycles. Delving into the impact of macroeconomic factors, Raoul analyzes why crypto is more volatile than stocks and offers insights on valuing layer-one networks based on user activity. He emphasizes the importance of being ready to deploy capital swiftly and highlights the synergy between blockchain and AI as transformative forces in the economy.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Liquidity Is The Dominant Market Driver

Global liquidity explains the vast majority of Nasdaq and Bitcoin moves, making liquidity the dominant macro factor.
Raoul Pal says liquidity shifts, not idiosyncratic stories, drive most recent market volatility.

INSIGHT

Short-Term Liquidity Air Pocket Explains Sell-Offs

A temporary 'liquidity air pocket' from Treasury and reverse repo activity is depressing risk assets now.
Raoul Pal expects liquidity to return over year-end as the Treasury drains the TGA and supports markets.

ADVICE

Cap Speculative Exposure Around 10%

Limit speculative bets: allocate no more than about 10% to high-risk 'meme' tokens or experiments.
Raoul Pal keeps most exposure in layer-one networks and caps FOMO trades to preserve capital.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

This week, Raoul Pal joins the show to discuss the current state of markets. As crypto & equities face their first significant sell off since the April lows, we deep dive into what's next for markets. Raoul discusses why he believes there's a wave of liquidity coming in 2026, how to trade crypto cycles, valuing crypto networks, has the DAT bubble burst, Raoul's AI thesis & more. Enjoy!

Follow Raoul: https://x.com/RaoulGMI

Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel

Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod

Zcash is encrypted Bitcoin. Your digital bill of rights securing your freedom for the 21st century.

Buy, store and spend ZEC privately using Zashi Wallet download today: https://electriccoin.co/zashi/

Katana is a DeFi-first chain built for deep liquidity and high yield. No empty emissions, just real yield and sequencer fees routed back to DeFi users.

Pre-deposit now: Earn high APRs with Turtle Club [https://app.turtle.club/campaigns/katana] or spin the wheel with Katana Krates [https://app.katana.network/krates]

This Empire episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Onchain Economy ETF (NODE): http://vaneck.com/EmpireNODE

An investment in the Fund involves a substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. It is possible to lose your entire principal investment. The Fund may invest nearly all of its net assets in either Digital Transformation Companies and/or Digital Asset Instruments. The Fund does not invest in digital assets or commodities directly.

Digital asset instruments may be subject to risks associated with investing in digital asset exchange-traded products (“ETPs”), which include the historical extreme volatility of the digital asset and cryptocurrency market, as well as less regulation and thus fewer investor protections, as these ETPs are not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (“1940 Act”) or commodity pools for the purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act (“CEA”).

Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit vaneck.com to read and consider the prospectus, containing the investment objective, risks, and fees of the fund, carefully before investing.

Uniswap’s Trading API offers plug-and-play access to deep onchain and off-chain liquidity, delivering enterprise-grade crypto trading without the complexity - from one of the most trusted teams in DeFi.

Click to get started with seamless, scalable access to Uniswap’s powerful onchain trading infrastructure. https://hub.uniswap.org/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ww_web_bw_awa_trading-api_20251117_podcast_clicks

(00:00) Intro

(01:25) Where Are We In The Macro Cycle?

(10:11) How To Value Crypto Networks?

(20:58) Ads (Zcash, Katana)

(22:14) The K-Shaped Economy

(25:31) Has The DAT Bubble Burst?

(28:24) Why Liquidity Drives Markets

(38:19) Ads (Zcash, Katana)

(39:35) How To Trade Crypto Cycles

(49:57) Ads (VanEck, Uniswap)

(51:39) Raoul's AI Thesis

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.