American Monetary Association 460: Global Economy, Demographic Trends and the Resilience of the US Rental Housing Market
Jason discusses the state of the economy, focusing on the role of the Federal Reserve and potential supply chain issues. He also shared his opinion on the strength of the US dollar and Argentina’s decision to adopt it. Towards the end, Jason addressed the issue of inflation and its steady fall since June of the previous year. He also discussed changes in active inventory across various local real estate markets, comparing it to 2019, and highlighted the importance of inventory in the real estate market.
Then Jason and Brian Beaulieu, Chief Economist at ITR Economics, talks about the state of the global economy, particularly in China and Europe and the potential for deflation in the real estate market in the early 2030s, the expected trajectory of inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response to it, and the state of the US housing market. They also highlight the resilience of the real estate market, even in a high-interest-rate environment, and the importance of being unleveraged in the United States and in demographically superior states.
#EconomicOutlook #RealEstateInvesting #GlobalEconomicTrends #ChinaEconomicGrowth #DemographicChallenges #Inflation #InterestRates #HousingMarket #Affordability #CulturalShifts
https://www.CalculatedRiskBlog.com/2023/01/housing-january-30th-weekly-update.html
Key Takeaways:
Jason’s editorial
1:29 Defeating inflation, US Dollar hegemony and Argentina
4:30 FED- ready for the next crisis
7:08 Local inventory numbers
10:44 Shadow demand vs. shadow supply
Brian Beaulieu interview
12:21 Income property- getting the middle class wealthy
14:12 Macro view on a global scale
15:38 Chart: China is weakening and will continue to weaken
16:25 Chart: Historic opportunity- India is the most populous country
18:27 Making the case for deflation in the 2030’s
22:21 Chart: This is only round one of inflation going forward
25:36 Capitulation- buyers will eventually accept less
29:46 How it all relates to the rental housing market
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