A 'Very Precarious' Time For Markets: AI Bubble, Credit Risks & Insider Selling | Jesse Felder

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Oct 9, 2025

Jesse Felder, a macro analyst and founder of The Felder Report, discusses the precarious state of the market amid AI-driven highs and consumer struggles. He raises alarms about the potential for an AI bubble burst to trigger disinflation or deflation. Jesse highlights signs of credit stress and insider selling as market warning indicators. He offers investment advice, stressing the need for agility, diversification, and the importance of broad real-asset exposure, including oil and gold, as economic pressures mount.

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INSIGHT

Stagflation Hidden By AI CapEx

The economy is becoming increasingly stagflationary with rising prices and a weakening labor market. GDP is holding up chiefly because AI-driven CapEx spending is propping growth rather than broad-based production.

ANECDOTE

AI Build-Out Echoes Past Overbuilds

Jesse compares the AI infrastructure build to historical overbuilds like dark fiber and railroads that later proved valuable. He notes trillions spent on CapEx today while revenues remain in the tens of billions.

INSIGHT

Corporate Cash Fuels AI Overbuild

Corporations have shifted massive free cash flow into capital-intensive AI infrastructure, creating an overbuild without matching revenue today. Many firms have exhausted cash on balance sheets and are moving to private and off-balance-sheet financing.

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Wall Street is partying hard right now with stocks at all-time highs.Unless a significant correction happens soon, the S&P will put in its third year of double-digit returns in a row.But pressures are building.The AI juggernaut, which is driving so much of the US economy and the market's rise these days, increasingly appears to be in bubble territory.While on the other hand, a large percentage of American consumers are increasingly struggling under the high cost of living.How will these pressures resolve in 2026?To discuss, we welcome back to the program macro analyst Jesse Felder, founder & Editor of the respected market research firm: The Felder Report.

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