Bond Market Tariff Signals and the Outlook for US Growth

24 snips

Apr 17, 2025

Guest

Amanda Lynam

In this discussion, Amanda Lynam, Head of Macro Credit Research at BlackRock, delves into signals from the bond market, revealing whether recent market tumult is a sign of deeper issues. Jay Timmons, CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers, tackles the challenges of workforce training and the impact of manufacturing regulations. Meanwhile, Whitney Tilson shares insights from his NYC mayoral candidacy and policy ideas aimed at boosting economic growth. Together, they explore critical intersections of finance, manufacturing, and politics.

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INSIGHT

Bond Market Signals on Tariffs

Bond market credit spreads have widened but don't yet signal a sharp economic downturn.
Market turmoil partly reflects tariff policy uncertainty but deeper issues may remain.

INSIGHT

Tariffs and Fed Dual Mandate Tension

Credit spreads don't price in a significant US growth slowdown from tariffs yet.
Fed may face tensions between unemployment rises and inflation increases later this year.

INSIGHT

Private Credit Stabilizes Markets

Private credit acts as a financing backstop in market volatility, not typically a systemic risk.
It's long-term capital with less run risk than bank deposits, stabilizing credit markets.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 17th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Amanda Lynam, Head of Macro Credit Research at Blackrock, talks about signals from the bond market, corporate credit spreads, and whether the market just experienced a tariff tantrum or whether deeper problems lie underneath. Following bond market turmoil triggered by the announcement of broad US levies earlier this month, investors are focusing more on developments in country-specific trade negotiations.
2) Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, brings us into the market open and discusses her outlook for growth in equities and the US economy. President Donald Trump said there was “big progress” in talks to strike a deal for Japan, which stocks responded to positively in pre-market trading ahead of the holiday weekend.
3) Jay Timmons, CEO and President of National Association of Manufacturers, joins to discuss manufacturing regulations and red tape, strengthening the manufacturing workforce, and whether tariffs and other Trump admin policies could actually revitalize manufacturing labor. Manufacturing output increased 5.1% in the first quarter, the most since late 2021, as customers boosted orders before tariffs hikes took effect. Despite the gain, manufacturing faces headwinds from higher material costs, trade policy uncertainty, and tariffs, which may impact production and investment plans this year and next year.
4) Ali Mortell, Director of Research at Blue Rose Research, joins to discuss Blue Rose's presentation that's made waves through Democratic politics, highlighting support President Trump garnered in 2024, how Democrats could claw back some voters, and what is the identity of the Democratic party.
5) Whitney Tilson, former hedge fund manager and NYC Mayoral candidate, discusses his candidacy and policy proposals, how he plans to gain support over Cuomo and Adams, and what the identity of the Democratic party should be. Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman donated $250,000 to a super PAC supporting former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in New York City's mayoral race after Ackman hosted a fundraiser for Tilson's bid earlier this year.
6) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story Costco's Kirkland brand bringing customers to the beer aisle and a New York Times report on possible signs of life on a distant planet.

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