S6 Ep3: How can countries develop their economies in a changed world?
Jan 22, 2025
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Tim Dobermann, Research Director at the International Growth Centre, and Francesco Caselli, Professor at the London School of Economics, discuss the changing landscape of economic development. They explore unorthodox policies needed to adapt to new global challenges, from Brexit to climate change. The impact of COVID-19 on trade and the importance of digital technologies are highlighted. They also assess AI's role in job creation and the fiscal policies nations must adopt to encourage growth while managing crises.
The evolution of global economic factors necessitates a fundamental shift in development policies away from traditional strategies like export-led manufacturing.
Addressing climate change within economic growth policies is crucial, as technological advancements in green energy present both challenges and opportunities.
Deep dives
Adapting Development Policies to New Realities
The evolution of global economic and geopolitical landscapes since 2018 has prompted a shift in the approach to development policies. Key factors influencing this change include rising trade tensions, political conflicts, and the fallout from events like Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, which highlighted skepticism towards international trade. The increasing complexity surrounding automation and climate change has necessitated a reevaluation of traditional policies grounded in the Washington Consensus. The call for modifications reflects a reality where conventional growth strategies, particularly export-led manufacturing, may no longer be viable solutions for developing countries.
Climate Change: A Call to Action
The urgency of addressing climate change has become a pressing concern, as evidence mounts that the consequences are not only dire but also intertwined with economic stability. In 2018, warnings regarding the potential damages caused by climate inaction were crystal clear, and recent reports indicate that targets set by international agreements have not been met. Attention is drawn to the fact that technological advancements in green energy present unique opportunities, albeit embroiled in a political landscape that has seen climate discussions diminish. Integrating climate considerations into development policies is now essential, highlighting a need for collective action and innovative solutions to counter future environmental challenges.
The Impact of Geopolitical Fragmentation
Geopolitical tensions have significantly altered the landscape for developing nations, necessitating a reevaluation of their strategies for growth and security. The move from a unipolar world to a more fragmented geopolitical reality has posed challenges, such as trade disruptions and security risks, but has also presented new opportunities for countries strategically positioned near major powers. However, concerns linger about the sustainability of these opportunities amidst shifting trade policies and international relations. Consequently, developing countries must navigate a complex web of alliances and pressures to ensure stability, security, and economic growth in this evolving context.
In 2018, “Unorthodox policies for unorthodox times” was the title of the first in a
series of blogs published by the International Growth Centre. The authors argued
that the environment for development had changed, and so development policies
should change too. Seven years on, as delegates gather in Davos for the 2025
Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum, how prescient was the analysis in
these articles, and what does this mean for future growth policy? Tim Dobermann
and Francesco Caselli talk to Tim Phillips about which “unorthodox policies” the
delegates to Davos should be discussing this week.