“Multiplier Arguments are often flawed” by AGB 🔸

Foreword

Sadly, it looks like the debate week will end without many of the stronger[1] arguments for Global Health being raised, at least at the post level. I don't have time to write them all up, and in many cases they would be better written by someone with more expertise, but one issue is firmly in my comfort zone: the maths!

The point I raise here is closely related to the Two Envelopes Problem, which has been discussed before. I think some of this discussion can come across as 'too technical', which is unfortunate since I think a qualitative understanding of the issue is critical to making good decisions when under substantial uncertainty. In this post I want to try and demystify it.

This post was written quickly, and has a correspondingly high chance of error, for which I apologise. I am confident in the core point, and [...]

---

Outline:

(00:05) Foreword

(00:59) Two envelopes: the EA version

(02:59) What just happened?

(04:17) Some implications

(05:27) Global Health vs. Animal Welfare

(07:28) Conclusion

The original text contained 3 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

---

First published:
October 13th, 2024

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/atdmkTAnoPMfmHJsX/multiplier-arguments-are-often-flawed

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.