The Indicator from Planet Money How a former Fed vice chair would approach rate cuts
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Dec 9, 2025 
Lael Brainard, former U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair, shares her insights from eight years on the Fed's decision-making committee. She discusses the challenges of making rate decisions amid missing economic data due to the government shutdown. Brainard suggests using alternative data sources for guidance, emphasizing a cautious approach with a hawkish cut followed by stability. She highlights that many price issues are tied to supply constraints, making them resistant to rate cuts. Her analogy of navigating fog adds a unique perspective on current monetary policy challenges.
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Inside The Fed's Decision Room
- Lael Brainard describes Fed meetings as people gathering with coffee and donuts to share observations around a big table.
- She recounts that each participant speaks and debates, which shaped her sense of how decisions get made at turning points.
Missing Data Makes A Hard Moment Harder
- Brainard emphasizes missing government data makes decisions harder but turning points are always hard to read because data looks backward.
- She warns that even fresh official statistics would still leave uncertainty at economic turning points.
Policy, Tariffs, And AI Are Pulling The Economy
- Brainard links current economic pull to tariffs, immigration restrictions, and an AI-driven investment shift away from some manufacturing.
- She suggests these forces make up-to-date indicators especially crucial to weigh inflation versus unemployment risks.