Under the Banyan Tree - Why US bond yields matter for Asia
Oct 5, 2023
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The podcast discusses the impact of rising US bond yields on Asian economies, including the strength of the US economy, higher interest rates, and the consequences for Asian equity markets and currencies. It explores the benefits for exporters and banks, the offsetting growth story in countries like India, and the role of Asian central banks in mitigating the effects.
Rising US bond yields and higher interest rates impact Asian economies, leading to a repricing of market expectations and a strong dollar.
The effects of rising US bond yields on Asian equity markets are mixed, benefiting exporters but limiting appetite for Asian equities.
Deep dives
Impact of Rising US Bond Yields on Asia
Rising US bond yields are causing concerns for investors and central bankers in Asia. The stronger than expected US economy, coupled with the prospect of higher interest rates for a longer period, is leading to a repricing of market expectations. This means that investors in the US are getting higher returns and keeping the dollar strong, which has implications for the rest of the world. Asian equities are particularly sensitive to this, as investors may opt to keep their money in US deposits rather than investing in Asian markets. Additionally, the stronger dollar is also a headwind for Asian investments, as the local currencies lose value, making it less attractive for investors.
Mixed Impact on Asian Equities
The rise in US bond yields is having mixed effects on Asian equity markets. On one hand, exporters benefit from a weaker local currency, making their products more competitive. This has resulted in strong performances from Taiwanese, Korean, and Japanese exporters. On the other hand, the stronger dollar and higher bond yields have led to limited appetite for Asian equities, as investors opt for higher returns in the US. However, some sectors, such as banks, can benefit from higher bond yields due to expanding margins. Overall, the impact on Asian equities depends on individual companies and the underlying growth story of the region, with India, Korea, and Taiwan showing resilience despite the global factors.
Fred Neumann and Herald van der Linde discuss the impact of rising US bond yields and higher-for-longer US interest rates on Asian economies. Disclaimer: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/61/2s6XG6R Stay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Research follow us on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/hsbcresearch/ or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research.