120: Why Do Companies Die? Value Creation in Public Equity Markets - With Michael Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
Nov 23, 2023
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Michael Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, discusses the unique patterns of wealth creation in public equity markets. He explains the increasing corporate 'death rate' and why firms are choosing to stay private for longer. He covers the theory of wealth destruction, the distinction between value investing and value factors, and the importance of looking beyond tech headlines.
Corporations are surviving longer and winning more, possibly due to a decrease in the number of companies going public and the increased stability of those that do.
Significant wealth creation in public markets is highly skewed, with only 2% of companies responsible for over 90% of aggregate net wealth creation, challenging common expectations and raising questions about long-term investment strategies.
Deep dives
Decrease in Number of Public Companies
The podcast episode discusses the decline in the number of public companies in the United States. In 1976, there were roughly 4800 public companies, which peaked at over 7300 in 1996. However, as of 2022, there are only slightly over 4200 companies. This represents a 40% decrease since 1996 and even fewer companies than in 1976.
Factors Affecting Corporate Longevity
The episode explores the reasons behind corporations surviving longer and achieving greater success. One factor mentioned is the decrease in the number of companies going public. The lower number of IPOs means that the companies that do go public tend to be older, more mature, and more stable. Additionally, larger companies are distancing themselves from smaller companies in terms of sustainable advantages, leading to increased longevity. These factors contribute to the trend of companies surviving longer.
Skewed Wealth Creation in the Public Markets
The podcast highlights the significant disparity in wealth creation in the public markets. Research shows that nearly 60% of public companies in the US over the past century failed to generate returns higher than one-month Treasury bills, resulting in the destruction of $9.1 trillion of wealth. On the other hand, only 2% of companies were responsible for over 90% of the aggregate net wealth creation, amounting to $55.1 trillion. This skewness challenges common expectations and raises questions about long-term investment strategies.
In his report ‘Birth, Death, and Wealth Creation’, Michael Mauboussin observes and then claims that corporations are surviving longer and winning more.
This week, we welcome Michael Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, to discuss the unique patterns of wealth creation in public equity markets.
After explaining the similarities between ice hockey and investing, Michael discusses why corporate ‘death rate’ is higher than firms’ ‘birth rates. He describes why firms are increasingly choosing forgo IPOs, opting to stay private for longer.
He also covers Hendrick Bessembinder’s theory of wealth destruction, the distinction between value investing and value factors, and why investors may want to look beyond the headlines when it comes to tech.
Michael Mauboussin was interviewed by Simon Brewer at the Quality-Growth Investor Conference in London. The next in-person event to be held by the organizers of the conference will be Value Invest New York on December 12. Use this link and enter “MONEYMAZE_VINY” at checkout to enjoy a 40% discount on tickets (worth $600; offer valid until 30th November 2023).