Good Authority
What polls can and cannot tell us about the 2024 elections
Mar 28, 2024
Political scientist John Sides and author Michael Tesler discuss the 2024 elections focusing on early polls, candidate familiarity, economic impact, racial realignment, campaign strategies, and potential battleground states.
35:02
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Quick takeaways
- Early polls may not accurately predict election outcomes as historical data suggests, highlighting the unpredictability of final results.
- Debates, approval ratings, and economic conditions can influence voter perceptions and narrow election outcomes, emphasizing the dynamic nature of electoral campaigns.
Deep dives
Impact of Polls on Election Outcomes
The podcast delves into the significance of polling data on election outcomes, highlighting that current polling data showing Trump ahead of Biden may not guarantee Trump's victory. By referencing historical data from political scientists, the episode suggests that early polls may not accurately predict election results, as seen in past elections. The discussion also touches on the potential for shifts in public opinion and how even small movements in popular vote share can impact the electoral college results.
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