UK Smoking Ban & the Black Market Chaos | IEA Live

In this Institute of Economic Affairs explainer, former Justice Secretary Sir Robert Buckland, IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon, and former ASH Director Clive Bates examine the UK government's proposal to introduce a “generational tobacco ban” as part of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill. The panel explores the legal, economic, and public health implications of a policy that would raise the legal smoking age year by year — effectively banning tobacco for future generations.

The discussion delves into the legal vulnerabilities of the legislation, including potential challenges under the Equality Act and the European Convention on Human Rights. Buckland outlines how the bill may conflict with the Windsor Framework and create constitutional difficulties in Northern Ireland. Snowdon highlights the unintended consequences of prohibition, drawing on recent examples from Australia where overregulation has led to black market violence and arson attacks. Bates critiques the policy's negligible health impact, arguing that it distracts from more effective harm reduction strategies.

The panel also assesses the government's failure to conduct adequate regulatory and equalities impact assessments, the risks of increasing criminalisation, and the broader political motivations behind the bill. They compare the UK’s approach with international examples such as Sweden, which has achieved the lowest adult smoking rates in Europe not through prohibition but by promoting safer alternatives like nicotine pouches and snus.

The speakers conclude that the generational ban is unlikely to achieve meaningful health outcomes, may exacerbate the illicit tobacco trade, and undermines adult choice while ignoring the six million existing smokers. Instead, they call for a pragmatic, evidence-based approach focused on enabling safer alternatives rather than coercive bans.

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