The Nonlinear Library EA - GDP per capita in 2050 by Hauke Hillebrandt
May 6, 2024
51:52
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: GDP per capita in 2050, published by Hauke Hillebrandt on May 6, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum.
Abstract
Here, I present GDP (per capita) forecasts of major economies until 2050. Since GDP per capita is the best generalized predictor of many important variables, such as welfare, GDP forecasts can give us a more concrete picture of what the world might look like in just 27 years. The key claim here is: even if AI does not cause transformative growth, our business-as-usual near-future is still surprisingly different from today.
Latest Draft as PDF
Results
In recent history, we've seen unprecedented economic growth and rises in living standards.
Consider this graph:[1]
How will living standards improve as GDP per capita (GDP/cap) rises? Here, I show data that projects GDP/cap until 2050. Forecasting GDP per capita is a crucial undertaking as it strongly correlates with welfare indicators like consumption, leisure, inequality, and mortality. These forecasts make the future more concrete and give us a better sense of what the world will look like soon.
Abstract thoughts about utopia generate little emotional energy; I find these forecasts more plastic and informative, because GDP/cap is highly predictive of welfare.[2] GDP/cap's generalized predictive power helps us paint a more vivid picture of what the world will look like soon. The business-as-usual near future suggested by the data below could be seen as a soft lower bound on how much the world will change. And yet, this world still seems radically different from today.
Since the figures below are adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), you can compare the GDP/cap of a poorer country in 2050 with the GDP/cap of a richer country in 2020. For instance, between now and 2050, China's GDP/cap will go from $19k to $43k, which is similar to France's today. And so, by 2050, 1.3B Chinese people might enjoy a lifestyle not dissimilar to that of a typical French person today.
These GDP/cap are ~3x[3] higher than the median (i.e. typical) income, due to income inequality. Instead of downward adjusting them in our head we can also read them as an approximation of the typical combined consumption three person household.[4] And so, we can still look at these figures and imagine the median household income in Japan today and in China in 2050 to be ~$40k.
2020
2030
2040
2050
Pop.
GDP
GDP/ cap
Pop.
GDP/ cap
GDP
Pop.
GDP/ cap
GDP
Pop.
GDP/ cap
GDP
US
334M
$20T
$60K
356M
$66K
$23T
374M
$76K
$28T
389M
$88K
$34T
Netherlands
17M
$1T
$54K
18M
$61K
$1T
18M
$71K
$1T
18M
$85K
$1T
S. Arabia
34M
$2T
$55K
39M
$70K
$3T
43M
$86K
$4T
46M
$102K
$5T
Germany
80M
$4T
$52K
79M
$59K
$5T
77M
$69K
$5T
75M
$82K
$6T
Australia
26M
$1T
$52K
28M
$58K
$2T
31M
$67K
$2T
33M
$77K
$3T
S. Korea
51M
$2T
$42K
53M
$50K
$3T
52M
$59K
$3T
51M
$70K
$4T
Canada
38M
$2T
$48K
40M
$53K
$2T
42M
$61K
$3T
44M
$70K
$3T
UK
67M
$3T
$45K
70M
$52K
$4T
73M
$61K
$4T
75M
$71K
$5T
France
66M
$3T
$44K
68M
$50K
$3T
70M
$56K
$4T
71M
$66K
$5T
Japan
125M
$5T
$40K
120M
$47K
$6T
114M
$54K
$6T
107M
$63K
$7T
Poland
38M
$1T
$31K
37M
$40K
$2T
35M
$53K
$2T
33M
$63K
$2T
Spain
46M
$2T
$39K
46M
$47K
$2T
46M
$53K
$2T
45M
$61K
$3T
Malaysia
32M
$1T
$32K
36M
$42K
$2T
39M
$54K
$2T
41M
$69K
$3T
Italy
60M
$2T
$39K
59M
$43K
$3T
58M
$48K
$3T
57M
$55K
$3T
Turkey
82M
$2T
$26K
88M
$34K
$3T
93M
$43K
$4T
96M
$54K
$5T
Russia
143M
$4T
$28K
139M
$34K
$5T
133M
$45K
$6T
129M
$55K
$7T
China
1403M
$27T
$19K
1416M
$27K
$38T
1395M
$34K
$47T
1348M
$43K
$58T
Thailand
69M
$1T
$19K
68M
$25K
$2T
66M
$34K
$2T
62M
$45K
$3T
Argentina
46M
$1T
$22K
49M
$27K
$1T
53M
$34K
$2T
55M
$43K
$2T
Mexico
135M
$3T
$19K
148M
$25K
$4T
158M
$32K
$5T
164M
$42K
$7T
Colombia
50M
$1T
$16K
53M
$21K
$1T
55M
$28K
$2T
55M
$38K
$2T
Iran
83M
$2T
$21K
89M
$27K
$2T
91M
$35K
$3T
92M
$42K
$4T
Indonesia
272M
$4T
$14K
295M
$18K
$5T
312M
$25K
$8T
322M
$33K
$11...
Abstract
Here, I present GDP (per capita) forecasts of major economies until 2050. Since GDP per capita is the best generalized predictor of many important variables, such as welfare, GDP forecasts can give us a more concrete picture of what the world might look like in just 27 years. The key claim here is: even if AI does not cause transformative growth, our business-as-usual near-future is still surprisingly different from today.
Latest Draft as PDF
Results
In recent history, we've seen unprecedented economic growth and rises in living standards.
Consider this graph:[1]
How will living standards improve as GDP per capita (GDP/cap) rises? Here, I show data that projects GDP/cap until 2050. Forecasting GDP per capita is a crucial undertaking as it strongly correlates with welfare indicators like consumption, leisure, inequality, and mortality. These forecasts make the future more concrete and give us a better sense of what the world will look like soon.
Abstract thoughts about utopia generate little emotional energy; I find these forecasts more plastic and informative, because GDP/cap is highly predictive of welfare.[2] GDP/cap's generalized predictive power helps us paint a more vivid picture of what the world will look like soon. The business-as-usual near future suggested by the data below could be seen as a soft lower bound on how much the world will change. And yet, this world still seems radically different from today.
Since the figures below are adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), you can compare the GDP/cap of a poorer country in 2050 with the GDP/cap of a richer country in 2020. For instance, between now and 2050, China's GDP/cap will go from $19k to $43k, which is similar to France's today. And so, by 2050, 1.3B Chinese people might enjoy a lifestyle not dissimilar to that of a typical French person today.
These GDP/cap are ~3x[3] higher than the median (i.e. typical) income, due to income inequality. Instead of downward adjusting them in our head we can also read them as an approximation of the typical combined consumption three person household.[4] And so, we can still look at these figures and imagine the median household income in Japan today and in China in 2050 to be ~$40k.
2020
2030
2040
2050
Pop.
GDP
GDP/ cap
Pop.
GDP/ cap
GDP
Pop.
GDP/ cap
GDP
Pop.
GDP/ cap
GDP
US
334M
$20T
$60K
356M
$66K
$23T
374M
$76K
$28T
389M
$88K
$34T
Netherlands
17M
$1T
$54K
18M
$61K
$1T
18M
$71K
$1T
18M
$85K
$1T
S. Arabia
34M
$2T
$55K
39M
$70K
$3T
43M
$86K
$4T
46M
$102K
$5T
Germany
80M
$4T
$52K
79M
$59K
$5T
77M
$69K
$5T
75M
$82K
$6T
Australia
26M
$1T
$52K
28M
$58K
$2T
31M
$67K
$2T
33M
$77K
$3T
S. Korea
51M
$2T
$42K
53M
$50K
$3T
52M
$59K
$3T
51M
$70K
$4T
Canada
38M
$2T
$48K
40M
$53K
$2T
42M
$61K
$3T
44M
$70K
$3T
UK
67M
$3T
$45K
70M
$52K
$4T
73M
$61K
$4T
75M
$71K
$5T
France
66M
$3T
$44K
68M
$50K
$3T
70M
$56K
$4T
71M
$66K
$5T
Japan
125M
$5T
$40K
120M
$47K
$6T
114M
$54K
$6T
107M
$63K
$7T
Poland
38M
$1T
$31K
37M
$40K
$2T
35M
$53K
$2T
33M
$63K
$2T
Spain
46M
$2T
$39K
46M
$47K
$2T
46M
$53K
$2T
45M
$61K
$3T
Malaysia
32M
$1T
$32K
36M
$42K
$2T
39M
$54K
$2T
41M
$69K
$3T
Italy
60M
$2T
$39K
59M
$43K
$3T
58M
$48K
$3T
57M
$55K
$3T
Turkey
82M
$2T
$26K
88M
$34K
$3T
93M
$43K
$4T
96M
$54K
$5T
Russia
143M
$4T
$28K
139M
$34K
$5T
133M
$45K
$6T
129M
$55K
$7T
China
1403M
$27T
$19K
1416M
$27K
$38T
1395M
$34K
$47T
1348M
$43K
$58T
Thailand
69M
$1T
$19K
68M
$25K
$2T
66M
$34K
$2T
62M
$45K
$3T
Argentina
46M
$1T
$22K
49M
$27K
$1T
53M
$34K
$2T
55M
$43K
$2T
Mexico
135M
$3T
$19K
148M
$25K
$4T
158M
$32K
$5T
164M
$42K
$7T
Colombia
50M
$1T
$16K
53M
$21K
$1T
55M
$28K
$2T
55M
$38K
$2T
Iran
83M
$2T
$21K
89M
$27K
$2T
91M
$35K
$3T
92M
$42K
$4T
Indonesia
272M
$4T
$14K
295M
$18K
$5T
312M
$25K
$8T
322M
$33K
$11...