Eeshani Kandpal, a researcher at the Center for Global Development, dives deep into the economic implications of cash transfer programs. She sheds light on whether these programs increase local prices alongside incomes. The conversation includes insights on how such transfers impact communities that don’t receive them and discusses critical factors influencing price changes, like market conditions. Eeshani also touches on lessons learned from case studies during COVID-19, emphasizing innovative strategies to enhance nutritional outcomes amidst challenges.
Cash transfer programs like PROGRESA demonstrate significant benefits such as increased school enrollment and improved health for targeted and non-targeted individuals alike.
While cash transfers can enhance wealth, they also risk raising local prices, which can adversely affect individuals who do not receive the transfers.
Deep dives
Impacts of Cash Transfers on Poverty and Education
Cash transfer programs can significantly reduce poverty and enhance educational outcomes. The Mexican conditional cash transfer program, PROGRESA, is a prime example, showing long-term benefits that include increased school enrollment and improved health outcomes not only for targeted individuals but also for non-targeted members of their households. Research on the South African Older Persons Grant highlights how cash transfers to grandmothers positively influence the education and health of their grandchildren. These programs can trigger substantial economic multipliers, exemplified by the GiveDirectly transfer in Kenya, where every dollar transferred generates nearly two dollars in additional economic activity.
The Price Effects and General Equilibrium Concerns
While cash transfers improve individual wealth, they may also lead to increased prices for certain goods and services, affecting those who do not receive the transfers. Understanding these price effects is crucial, as they can obscure the net benefits of cash transfer programs. For instance, the GiveDirectly research indicates that cash entering a local economy can create inflationary pressures, necessitating careful examination of how these price changes influence overall welfare. Policymakers need to comprehend these general equilibrium effects to ensure they address any adverse outcomes that might arise from well-intentioned programs.
Contextual Factors Affecting Price Responses
The impact of cash transfers on prices is context-specific, influenced by factors such as market remoteness and the characteristics of the transfer itself. In remote markets, small cash inflows can lead to significant short-term price changes due to a delayed supply response. Research in the Philippines has documented price increases for perishable goods, such as eggs and dairy, highlighting how geographic and economic contexts dictate outcomes. Additionally, the nature of the cash transfer, whether it is a one-off or part of a longer-term support system, affects consumer behavior and price fluctuations in the market.
What are the price impacts of cash transfer programs? Do they raise prices as well
as incomes? And what is the impact on people in the community who don’t receive
the transfer? Eeshani Kandpal of the Center for Global Development is one of the
researchers who has investigated this topic. She talks to Tim Phillips about the
conclusions of her own research, the insights of other economists, and the
implications for policy.
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