RiskReversal Pod HOPE is a Dangerous Thing… In the Stock Market with Michael Kantrowitz
Dec 5, 2025
Michael Kantrowitz, Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, shares his insights on the economy, focusing on his HOPE framework: Housing, Orders, Profits, and Employment. He highlights how low mortgages impact housing affordability and links unemployment trends to home equity growth. The discussion explores the role of credit easing and the connection between inflation concerns and market performance. Kantrowitz presents an outlook for 2026, predicting improved conditions for cyclical sectors despite ongoing uncertainties.
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HOPE Simplifies Macro Signals
- HOPE condenses macro data into four leading areas: Housing, Orders, Profits, Employment.
- Focusing on these key baskets gives clearer signals than chasing every available data point.
Watch Leading Housing Data Closely
- Track leading housing indicators like purchase apps, builder sentiment, starts and permits to read housing momentum.
- Treat the locked-in mortgage cohort carefully and watch how its size declines over time.
Home Equity Is A Major Consumer Cushion
- Rising home equity and lower HELOC costs create a consumer cushion despite many being rate-locked.
- Michael notes roughly $36 trillion in aggregate home equity, with HELOC growth now accelerating above 10%.