The World Next Week

More Resources: The Interconnect

Feb 27, 2025

In this discussion, Sebastian Elbaum, a technologist at the Council on Foreign Relations and a professor at the University of Virginia, dives into the evolution of chip manufacturing and the essential role it plays in advancing AI technology. The conversation highlights the challenges of maintaining leadership in the semiconductor sector amidst rising costs and geopolitical tensions. Additionally, they tackle the intersection of energy strategy and computing, considering how sustainable solutions like nuclear power could support future innovations.

30:25

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Sebastian Elbaum

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Quick takeaways

The increasing costs and complexities of semiconductor fabrication threaten the sustainability of advancements described by Moore's Law, impacting future computing affordability.

The interplay between U.S. export restrictions and China's semiconductor innovation highlights the need for strategic talent attraction and domestic capacity building in the tech sector.

Deep dives

The Future of Moore's Law

Moore's Law, which describes the trend of doubling transistors on a chip approximately every two years, appears to be experiencing significant challenges as the costs associated with chip production are no longer decreasing at the same rate. Experts discuss the complexity behind this phenomenon, noting that while technology still allows for increased transistor density, the financial aspects of chip fabrication have shifted. In particular, the rising costs associated with building semiconductor fabrication plants, which are now multi-billion dollar facilities, complicate the previously expected economic benefits of scaling. This leads to concerns about future computing costs and its implications for industries reliant on advanced technology.

Intro

2min

Navigating the Future of Moore's Law

23min

Navigating Energy Constraints in Advanced Computing

2min

A Lightning Round of Computing Luminaries and Innovations

2min

Exploring Technology & Resources in The Interconnect

2min

Missing The World Next Week? Host Robert McMahon shares his favorite CFR resources for news and analysis on foreign policy and global affairs. The Interconnect, a new podcast series from the Council on Foreign Relations and the Stanford Emerging Technology Review, brings together leading minds in cutting-edge technology and foreign policy to explore recent ground-breaking developments, what’s coming over the horizon, and the implications for U.S. innovation leadership.

In this featured episode, host Martin Giles sits down with CFR Technologist-in-Residence Sebastian Elbaum and Stanford Emerging Technology Review faculty council member Mark Horowitz to discuss where chip manufacturing is heading, how hardware advances are powering the new artificial intelligence (AI) era, and what the United States should prioritize in order to sustain its leadership in this crucial domain.

This episode was originally released by The Interconnect on February 13, 2025.

Featured Episode: Chips and the Future of Computing

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