The World Next Week More Resources: The Interconnect
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Feb 27, 2025 In this discussion, Sebastian Elbaum, a technologist at the Council on Foreign Relations and a professor at the University of Virginia, dives into the evolution of chip manufacturing and the essential role it plays in advancing AI technology. The conversation highlights the challenges of maintaining leadership in the semiconductor sector amidst rising costs and geopolitical tensions. Additionally, they tackle the intersection of energy strategy and computing, considering how sustainable solutions like nuclear power could support future innovations.
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Moore's Law and Cost Scaling
- Moore's Law, stating that transistor density doubles periodically, has held true, leading to cheaper computing.
- However, the cost-per-transistor decrease has stalled, impacting cost scaling in recent technologies.
Impact of Computation Costs
- Falling computation costs incentivized moving functionalities into the computational domain, driving innovation in areas like automotive electronics.
- As cost scaling slows, optimizing the entire computing stack becomes crucial, impacting design and resource allocation.
DeepSeek's Cost Advantage
- DeepSeek, a Chinese company, developed AI models with performance comparable to US companies but at significantly lower training costs.
- This cost advantage stemmed from constraints on access to high-end hardware, forcing innovative optimizations.