Marina Miron, an expert from the War Studies Department at King’s College London, shares her insights on pressing global security challenges for 2025. She discusses the complexities of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal, highlighting Donald Trump's possible influence. The conversation dives into Iran's shifting power in the Middle East and the nuances of conflict in Syria and Gaza. Additionally, Miron addresses China's military ambitions toward Taiwan and the significant implications of such aggression on global stability and international relations.
The potential for Donald Trump to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace deal is complicated by power dynamics and Ukraine's security concerns.
Iran's struggle to regain influence in the Middle East is hampered by weakened proxies and the rise of Israeli defense strategies.
Deep dives
Trump's Potential Role in Ukraine Peace Talks
The feasibility of Donald Trump negotiating a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is highly debated. While Trump has previously claimed he could resolve the conflict swiftly, the current dynamics suggest a more complex reality. Russia, feeling strong on the battlefield, may prefer to negotiate from a position of power, potentially requiring Ukraine to concede territory temporarily. This scenario not only complicates negotiations but also raises concerns about Ukraine's future security guarantees, particularly in light of Trump's known skepticism towards NATO commitments.
Iran's Struggle for Regional Influence
Iran faces significant challenges in re-establishing its influence in the Middle East due to the recent weakening of its regional proxies. The future of Syria remains uncertain, complicating Iran's ability to recover politically and militarily. As Israel consolidates its power and builds a buffer against Iranian threats, the prospects for Iran's resurgence appear dim in the short term. However, Iran may still pursue a long-term strategy, including potential efforts to develop a nuclear arsenal amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
China's Calculated Approach Toward Taiwan
The likelihood of China making aggressive moves on Taiwan in 2025 seems low, especially under a potentially hawkish Trump administration. The United States relies heavily on Taiwan's semiconductor production, making Taiwan strategically crucial for Western interests. Additionally, China's military lacks recent battlefield experience, which may deter aggressive actions. The evolving global situation, including relations with North Korea and developments in the Middle East, will play significant roles in determining China's strategic choices in this context.
As the new year begins, Marina Miron from the War Studies Department of King’s College London, joins us to discuss the big global security questions of 2025.
The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists.