My guest today is George Robertson. George is a highly interesting and contrarian investor who started on Wall Street way back in 1981. We start this conversation with a few incredible stories from his colorful career. George then makes a compelling case for why the Fed no longer has any power and what’s really happening with the economy. We end the conversation with another provocative claim on the market for US treasuries. Please enjoy this conversation with George Robertson.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here.
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Show Notes
(00:00:00) Welcome to Making Markets
(00:00:15) First Question - A quick background of his investment career
(00:06:27) Basic tenants to think about when starting in trading
(00:12:41) Fed reaction functions before the market got weird
(00:17:17) How the Fed lost the power of the reaction function
(00:19:19) Outcomes of the Fed buying trillions in assets
(00:22:04) How pushing out risk spectrums does not inflate assets
(00:26:13) Difficulties behind trying to start inflation before covid
(00:28:42) Reasons covid unleashed fiscal spending
(00:30:21) His estimate on how much money the government put into the economy
(00:34:55) What the salesman macro pitch got so wrong
(00:36:52) His view on why rates are going higher
(00:38:54) Whether raising funds is the right thing to do
(00:39:27) The driver behind the higher rates call
(00:41:52) Conventional mortgage numbers versus NGDP numbers
(00:42:20) The housing narrative compared to supply and demand
(00:44:35) Recession structure without bank involvement
(00:45:55) How high-frequency trading has impacted market forces
(00:48:48) His view on how one person can drastically shift the market
(00:51:31) Where he thinks we are in the sentiment cycle
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Making Markets