AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Three Is Often More Than Two
- Three-pointers had much higher expected value from the start because 3x makes% often exceeded 2x makes% by a large margin.
- Coaching culture and psychology delayed adoption despite the clear mathematical advantage.
Psychology Blocks EV Decisions
- Loss aversion and fear of being singled out kept teams from adopting higher-variance, higher-EV strategies like more threes.
- Endgame win-probability choices also justify rejecting threes in specific late-game contexts.
Set Expectation For Calculated Failure
- When you adopt an aggressive, variance-raising strategy, set expectations that you will fail often and commit collectively.
- Frame failures as part of a plan to maximize your chance to be the single best team among competitors.