Bloomberg Surveillance Hotter CPI Unlikely to Deter Rate Cuts - For Now
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Oct 23, 2025 
In this discussion, Jeff DeGraff, Chairman of Renaissance Macro, and Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro, delve into pressing market trends. They explore the implications of Fed easing on current market uptrends and the risks of sluggish housing affecting employment. Jeff analyzes the global bull market and gold's surge, while Neil argues for the reliability of employment data over GDP. They also address misconceptions in trading and weigh the potential impact of AI on productivity in the economy.
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Bull Market Driven By Fed Easing Expectations
- Markets are broadly positive because investors expect Fed easing and falling yields to support cyclicals.
- Renaissance Macro views cyclicality versus defensives as the key Q4 market test.
Housing Weakness Could Tip Labor And Consumption
- Neil Dutta warns housing weakness can spill into construction jobs and weaken consumer spending.
- He thinks the Fed may be behind and should act more front-loaded into next year.
Productivity Is The Key To Reconciling Markets
- Discrepancies between GDP and employment suggest GDP may be overstated.
- Only a productivity boom would reconcile low bond yields with high equity earnings expectations.