GasBuddy Head of Petroleum Analysis Patrick De Haan Talks Energy Prices Ahead of the Holidays
Nov 27, 2024
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Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy, shares insights into the energy market's future as the holiday season approaches. He discusses the implications of proposed tariffs on Canadian goods and their impact on gasoline prices, particularly for holiday travelers. De Haan forecasts gas prices leading into January and analyzes how energy deregulation might affect Canadian oil imports. He also highlights regional gas price variations across the U.S., providing essential tips for road trip planning.
A proposed 25% tariff on Canadian oil could raise gasoline prices in the U.S. by 33 to 34 cents per gallon.
Thin refinery margins in the U.S. suggest that companies are likely to pass tariff costs onto consumers rather than absorbing them.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariffs on Gasoline Prices
A proposed 25% tariff on goods from Canada, including oil, could significantly increase gasoline prices in the U.S., especially in regions reliant on Canadian heavy oil. This tariff could lead to an additional cost of approximately 33 to 34 cents per gallon, representing over a 10% increase based on current prices. For areas like Michigan and Ohio, which lack alternative oil sources, motorists are likely to see these hikes directly reflected at the pump. Such a policy disrupts decades of established refinery operations in the Midwest, which have been structured to process Canadian oil almost exclusively.
Refinery Challenges and Market Dynamics
Many U.S. refineries are struggling with thin margins, making it unlikely they can absorb the costs incurred from the proposed tariffs. While some believe that companies could share the burden with consumers, the reality is that refinery margins are at some of the lowest levels seen in years, meaning passing on costs is more probable. Additionally, the potential approval of the Keystone XL pipeline could allow Canada to export oil to other markets, further squeezing U.S. refiners. The current landscape indicates that any tariff implementation would exacerbate existing challenges for these refineries, creating a more volatile pricing environment for consumers.