WSJ Opinion: Free Expression
The Final Stretch - or is it?
Oct 30, 2024
Doug Schoen, a veteran pollster with nearly 50 years of experience, shares his insights on the razor-thin margins in the presidential race and Congress. He discusses the implications of Trump’s and Harris's closing statements on undecided voters. The dialogue reveals Trump's potential edge in key battleground states and the unpredictability surrounding voter turnout. Schoen also touches on the competitive dynamics of congressional races, highlighting demographic patterns and the possibility of unexpected election outcomes.
23:28
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Quick takeaways
- The competitive presidential race is marked by Trump's potential edge in battleground states and evolving early voting patterns among Republicans.
- The contrasting closing strategies of Harris focusing on character versus Trump emphasizing core issues reveal their attempts to resonate with voters' sentiments.
Deep dives
Polling Predictions and Trends
The current state of polling indicates a deadlock between the two leading candidates, with little movement in national polls. Veteran pollster Doug Schoen suggests that while the likelihood of a surprising outcome leans towards Trump, a late surge in support for Harris cannot be completely ruled out. The analysis highlights that reluctant Trump voters and low propensity supporters could turn out, giving Trump a potential edge in the electoral race. Schoen underscores that past experiences suggest that polling inaccuracies have favored Trump in recent elections, raising uncertainty about the accuracy of this year's predictions.
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