Topics discussed in this episode include covered call strategies, the Federal Reserve's potential actions, Warren Buffett's latest moves, and the debate around returning pandas to China. The hosts also touch upon investing strategies, dividend growth, and the connection between earnings performance and stock market prospects.
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Quick takeaways
Kevin Simpson discusses his covered call writing strategy on large cap stocks, emphasizing the importance of dividends for tax purposes and clients' preference for rising income.
Simpson shares his view on the market outlook, predicting potential rate cuts but considering the timing to be premature, highlighting the impact of interest rate reductions on equities and cautioning about the effect of economic contraction on earnings and multiples.
Simpson provides insights into his covered call strategy and portfolio construction, focusing on income generation through covered call writing, blending dividends with option premiums, and utilizing tax-loss harvesting in an environment of increased volatility.
Deep dives
Opportunistic Covered Call Writing on Large Caps
Kevin Simpson, founder and CIO of Capital Wealth Planning, discusses his covered call writing strategy on large cap stocks. He focuses on 25 to 30 high-quality stocks, primarily from the S&P 100, with each holding being approximately 4% of the portfolio. Simpson is opportunistic in his covered call writing, looking for short-term options with out-of-the-money strikes. He aims to generate 2% to 4% annualized option premiums and trims positions that exceed 7% to 8%. Simpson emphasizes the importance of dividends in his strategy, blending them with the option premiums for tax purposes. He also mentions that more than half of his business comes from non-qualified accounts, displaying clients' preference for rising income. Additionally, Simpson discusses his view on Warren Buffett, expressing admiration for Buffett's value investing philosophy rooted in Benjamin Graham's teachings.
Market Outlook: Rate Cuts and Increased Volatility
In this podcast episode, Kevin Simpson explores the market outlook regarding potential rate cuts, increased volatility, and the impact on stocks. He shares his belief that a soft landing scenario with recessionary pressures will lead to rate cuts, but he finds the timing of rate cuts in March to be premature. Simpson also discusses how a reduction in interest rates could positively impact equities due to higher multiples and increased margins. However, he cautions that any economic contraction can hurt earnings and multiples. The discussion delves into the relationship between volatility and market performance, especially noting how a significant demand for stocks usually leads to bullish outcomes. Simpson touches on the cash allocation of institutional investors and the high level of assets in money market funds, suggesting that a potential market rally could prompt a rotation into stocks at higher levels.
Kevin Simpson's Covered Call Strategy and Portfolio Construction
Kevin Simpson shares insights into his covered call strategy and portfolio construction. He focuses on generating income through covered call writing on 25 to 30 high-quality large-cap stocks, primarily from the S&P 100. Simpson looks for short-term options with out-of-the-money strikes, aiming for annualized option premiums of 2% to 4%. He considers dividends to be an essential component of his strategy, blending them with option premiums. Simpson also discusses his tax-aware approach, being proactive in tax-loss harvesting throughout the year. He emphasizes the importance of total return and highlights the benefits of opportunistic covered call writing in an environment with increased volatility.
Earnings season highlights mixed performance
Earnings season showed a higher beat rate for the bulls, but there were also high-profile disappointments and forecasts. Top-line and bottom-line results were strong for some companies like Cisco and Walmart, but market focus shifted towards future performance. Consumer belt-tightening and concerns about a possible recession affected stock prices. Positive outlooks from companies like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan indicated cautious optimism, but concerns remain about guidance trends.
Berkshire Hathaway's investment activities and financial position
Berkshire Hathaway was a net seller of stocks in Q3, selling $7 billion worth and only buying $1.7 billion. Despite having $157 billion in cash, Berkshire Hathaway did not significantly buy back its own shares. Speculation surrounds a mystery stock addition to their holdings. Additionally, developments in Berkshire Hathaway's positions in General Motors and Sirius XM were discussed, along with the financial health of the company.
On episode 118 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Kevin Simpson to discuss: covered call strategies, the Fed, Warren Buffett's latest moves, and much more!
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