The state of storage in ERCOT with Brandt Vermillion (Market Lead @ Modo Energy)
May 2, 2024
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Brandt Vermillion, ERCOT Market Lead at Modo Energy, dives into the dynamic landscape of battery energy storage in Texas. He reveals that ERCOT's storage capacity has surged past 4GW and is projected to hit 10GW by the end of 2024. The conversation covers peak demand trends, the impact of renewables, and how batteries are optimizing market participation. Brandt also highlights the differences in volatility between ERCOT and Great Britain, offering insights into strategies employed by major industry players as they navigate this rapidly evolving market.
Battery storage capacity in ERCOT has surged to over 4GW, primarily driven by favorable economic conditions and enhanced project construction rates.
As competition within the ancillary services market grows, battery operators will need to adapt to shifting dynamics to maintain profitability amidst potential revenue saturation.
Deep dives
Rapid Growth of Battery Storage Capacity
Battery storage capacity in Texas has seen remarkable growth, reaching over 4 gigawatts, a significant increase from just a couple of hundred megawatts in early 2021. This rapid escalation illustrates a twelvefold increase in capacity, with projections suggesting it could double again by the end of 2024. The impressive growth is attributed to several factors, including enhanced project construction rates and the overall positive economic environment for energy storage development. With Texas outpacing other regions, the trend indicates a strong commitment to expanding battery storage infrastructure.
Factors Influencing Battery Project Developments
Various factors contribute to the development of battery storage projects, including optimistic completion dates and potential project delays due to construction challenges. Despite delays, approximately 70-75% of the expected projects for the previous year were successfully built, suggesting a robust build-out in the near future. Projects vary in size, with most around 50 megawatts, and the sector is beginning to see larger plants, including some exceeding 200 megawatts, which are often strategically located near demand centers. This diversification in project size and location highlights the adaptability of battery storage solutions across Texas.
Market Dynamics and Revenue Implications
The growth in battery storage capacity has led to an increase in competition within the ancillary services market, which may lead to revenue saturation as more batteries enter the space. Currently, batteries contribute around 4% of the state's peak demand during high-demand events, which has grown from just over 2% last year. This evolution reflects a shift in market dynamics as volatile prices foster high revenues for battery operators, with average earnings per megawatt seeing a significant rise. However, as saturation occurs, it is expected that revenues generated from ancillary services will decrease, necessitating a shift towards energy market operations for profitability.
Future Outlook for Battery Storage in Texas
Looking ahead, the forecast for battery storage in Texas indicates continued aggressive growth, with predictions exceeding 140 gigawatts in the interconnection queue. As demand for electricity increases, driven by factors such as industrial growth and electrification, the role of battery storage will become even more critical. The market is anticipated to see a mix of established players and new entrants, as companies recognize the attractive prospects in the energy storage sector. With potential challenges related to balancing supply and demand, the development of more flexible market tools and innovative storage solutions will be essential to manage future electricity needs.
Battery energy storage in ERCOT is accelerating fast! At the start of 2023, total installed storage sat at 1.96 GW of operational capacity - one year later that number exceeds 4GW, and ERCOT’s predictions see capacity reaching 10GW by the end of 2024. What factors have influenced this buildout, and in what ways are we seeing batteries participate in the market?
In today’s episode, guest host Wendel Hortop is joined by ERCOT Market Lead, Brandt Vermillion. Over the course of the conversation, they discuss:
Storage capacity in ERCOT at present, as well as what future buildout is in the pipeline.
Peak demand in Texas and how load is expected to boom.
Which markets storage participates in and why saturation isn’t as important in ERCOT.
The differences in volatility between ERCOT and Great Britain and a look at some of the most recent price spike events.
The strategies employed by some of the major players.
About Modo Energy
Modo Energy provides benchmarking, forecasts, data, and insights for new energy assets - all in one place.
Built for analysts, Modo helps the owners, operators, builders, and financiers of battery energy storage solutions understand the market - and make the most out of their assets. Modo’s paid plans serve more than 80% of battery storage owners and operators in Great Britain and ERCOT.
All of our podcasts are available to watch or listen to on the Modo Energy site. To keep up with all of our latest updates, research, analysis, videos, podcasts, data visualizations, live events, and more, follow us on LinkedIn or Twitter. Check out The Energy Academy, our video series of bite-sized chunks explaining how different energy systems work.
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