This Week in Bitcoin 82: The Missing Variable
Nov 19, 2025
Discover the intriguing twists in Bitcoin's four-year cycle and why it's possibly cracking under macroeconomic pressures. The discussion weaves through the impact of Trump's policy, emerging trends in central bank purchases, and Mike McGlone's controversial predictions. They delve into liquidity’s role in market shifts and the ongoing debate over filter forks and censorship risks. Plus, strategies for navigating these turbulent waters, including insights on dollar-cost averaging vs. sniping, keep things lively!
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Liquidity Explains Bitcoin Cycles
- The ISM Manufacturing PMI closely tracks Bitcoin cycles and may explain price moves more than halvings.
- Liquidity conditions, not just halvings, appear to drive major Bitcoin rallies and crashes.
QT Ending Is A Potential Backstop
- Ending quantitative tightening removes a liquidity drain and can act as a backstop for Bitcoin.
- Money flow from fiscal and Fed actions often reaches Bitcoin with a lag and can be front-run by markets.
Carry Trades Drive Funding Stress
- Global carry trades (yen and dollar) and rising JGB yields influence U.S. yields and liquidity dynamics.
- Shifts in carry trades and foreign yields can transmit stress into U.S. funding markets and crypto volatility.