Merryn Talks Money The 'Humble' Investor Says Sell Private Equity, Sell US Tech, Buy Polish Small Caps
33 snips
Jan 10, 2025 
Daniel Rasmussen, founder of Verdad Advisers and author of 'The Humble Investor', shares his unique view on investing. He argues against US tech investments and advocates for buying Polish small caps, especially with potential peace in Ukraine. Rasmussen discusses the fallacies of financial forecasting, emphasizing that despite their shortcomings, forecasts are still necessary. He highlights the advantages of value investing in international markets and warns against the AI bubble, offering a refreshing perspective on current market dynamics.
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Forecasting Inaccuracy
- Forecasts in investing, especially long-term growth predictions, are often inaccurate.
- Short-term forecasts offer slightly better accuracy but don't guarantee investment success.
The General and the Weather
- During World War II, Ken Arrow found weather forecasts useless for troop planning.
- Despite their inaccuracy, the general insisted on forecasts for planning purposes.
Effective Forecasting
- Use base rates derived from long-term historical data when forecasting.
- Identify areas of excessive optimism or pessimism in the market for potential arbitrage opportunities.
